Archive for the 'john key' Category

It’s 3am again

Armstrong’s a little more charitable in relation to National’s dithering on the evacuation of Kiwis from Bangkok than I would have been. Yes, Key got there in the end but we had to endure yet more of the painful “there are a range of options that we’re considering” BS he’s so prone to.

I’m sure Goff’s cheeky suggestion that Key give him a ring for some advice was only intended, as Armstrong suggests, to rub salt into the wound but you might wonder what would have been so hard about picking up the phone to Kevin Rudd to hammer out a joint solution with the Aussies. What’s that? You didn’t get his number at APEC John, just his autograph?

Fiasco

John Key’s first test as Prime Minister in a crisis is turning into a bloody fiasco, with the leader of the opposition having to tell him how to do his job through the media. Read the linked article, it’s extraordinary.

For the sake of the hundreds of Kiwis stranded in Thailand, can’t John just spare us the dithering and let Phil Goff handle the crisis?

UPDATE: Hilarious parody over at the Dim Post: ‘Key slams government response to Bangkok crisis

First days on the job disappoint

The journos don’t seem to have been very impressed by Key now that he has returned to take up the reins of government.

Several journos criticised his performance at his first post-Cabinet press conference. There is growing criticism of Key’s response to the situation in Thailand. Certainly both both his lack of urgency and his loose lips regarding contingency plans he had planned to keep confidential haven’t instilled confidence.

Tracey Watkins reckons that, by dithering on the financial crisis, National is risking its honeymoon ending sooner, rather than later:

The rest of the world, in other words, has decided to “go defcon” – while on our side of the globe, despite the “whatever it takes” promises from Prime Minister John Key and Mr English, there has only been cautious talk about bringing forward small infrastructure projects, and a whiff of “awaiting developments” in the air. Even the much- touted December economic stimulus package has had to borrow heavily from Labour’s October 1 tax cuts, which have already been banked, to arrive at the $7 billion figure that is being tossed around as a sign of willing on the Government’s part to join the “fiscal stimulation” party…

But National’s talk so far of curbing government spending has been cautious – and while it seems increasingly likely that some hard decisions will have to be made in light of the deteriorating position, it has ruled out the sort of upheaval that a harsh prescription like ACT’s would incur. The other option, to throw a far bigger package at the recession than the one National entered the election campaign with, would be in line with the current international fashion – but it comes with no guarantee of success either.

With Mr Key out of the country for Apec in his first week on the job, today – when he leads his first Cabinet meeting – is the first real day of the new Government getting down to business.

Events on the international stage, including the Air New Zealand disaster, may overshadow it – and the report card for the new Government, to date, on its response to those disasters in its first week is mixed. After a slow response earlier in the week to events in India (again, we can blame the fact that ministers’ offices are still only on skeleton staff) it had stepped up a gear by the end of the week in responding to the Air New Zealand disaster.

But those are matters beyond the Government’s control; it is on how it responds over the next few weeks to the more pressing matters within its control that will decide whether the honeymoon is a long one or cut short prematurely.

Colin James is also critical of Key’s continued unwillingness to be firm on anything, although his concern is more that National should try to sneak things through while the honeymoon is on:

if John Key is to make good his vaunted “ambition” and enrich us, he must improve infrastructure and hone institutional settings.

Key has promised additions to Labour’s infrastructure and human capital programmes. But on institutional settings he was bland pre-election and post-election. He has taken to not ruling things out, even a carbon tax. Prime ministers have to rule things out - and in. A good time to start is on the honeymoon, when voters are still smoochy. A bad time to start is in a second term when electoral leeway is tighter.

I guess we are all used to the Prime Minister being firm and clear but, in fact, that was Helen Clark’s personality and abilities, not a consequence of the position. I think, now, what we’re discovering is that people don’t change just because their job changes. In opposition, Key was unwilling to say anything that might offend, was vacillating, and had a tendency to mis-speak. Now he is PM, he is still indecisive and vague, and he seems to lack a sense of the gravity of the decisions he must make.

More to worry about

John Key said yesterday that he expects growth in “the next financial year to be pretty close to zero”. That means he’s anticipating a serious recession. That’s our national wealth shrinking for two years, even as the population continues to grow - a smaller pie for more people to share.

Here’s hoping we will see an ambitious program from National/ACT to protect Kiwis by creating jobs, boosting wages, looking after those who lose their jobs, and ensuring the social wage (the goods and services Kiwis receive free of direct charge from the State) is not eroded.

[also, John, you're in power now - drop the anti-Labour bullshit, you are responsible for your government, there's no use saying Labour was crap too. And governing is about more than catchy lines so stop repeating the vacuous campaign lines like 'balance our environmental responsiblities with our economic opportunities', which you said three times in ten minutes during your press conference]

A plea to National

Don’t let Key go abroad representing us again until he has had some diplomacy training.

I can’t believe, I literally can’t believe, the comments he has made in the UK. In addition to the comments yesterday, where he called the new carbon-offset airport departure tax “protectionism” and said it will lead to a “contagion effect”, he is now reported to have told British Prime Minister (and former Chancellor) Gordon Brown that his new tax policy is “not necessarily rational”.

Think about how this looks to the UK. Key has not actually done the job of Prime Minister for one day and yet here he is in the UK, a guest of the British government, criticising the policies of a government that has been in power eleven years, insulting them in the crudest terms. ‘Who does this guy think he is?’ British leaders will be asking themselves, ’some puffed up newbie presuming to tell us how to run our country’.

This is not how you do diplomacy, and it’s not how you do diplomacy because it doesn’t work. The UK doesn’t have to listen to us, least of all when we want them to change their policy on something as core to sovereignty as tax policy. If we want them to listen, we have to use constructive language (eg. ‘clearly, New Zealand is very concerned about climate change. We are also economically dependent on tourism and every year hundreds of thousands of people from the UK come to experience our beautiful country. We will be working with our British friends closely to see if it is possible to reduce emissions without making tourism from the UK to New Zealand unaffordable). Key’s comments have not been constructive or even nuanced, they have been plain insulting. Leaders are people too, be rude to them, attack their work, especially when you have just met them and have no experience of your own, and they will not look on your cause fondly. 

No, Key won’t a public dressing down from Brown over this, but that’s not how diplomacy works. The consequences will be far more subtle and far more insidious. Key will have helped to deafen the ears of UK leaders to our voice. National should keep him in New Zealand where he can’t do any more harm (to our international relations at least) and get the competent diplomats like Tim Groser out there to repair the damage so far as it can be.

The departed

The UK has announced plans to increase departure tax from its airports for flights outside Europe to pay for offsetting their carbon emissions. This is part of the worldwide response to climate change - countries are making emitters pay and even aviation, which is excluded from Kyoto, is now being targeted (quite rightly too, it is one of the fastest growing emission sources).

Of course, that’s bad news for New Zealand tourism. Over quarter of a million people visit New Zealand from the UK each year. Adding hundreds of dollars to the cost of their ticket will decrease their numbers and leave them with less to spend here.

So, what should we do about it? Our one bargaining chip is a clean, green image. If we could show that we have a strong emissions reduction programme, we could argue that tourism to New Zealand is overall very low on carbon - people might burn a lot of fuel getting here but little once they are here. It’s kind of like our argument against food miles - sure, it means burning some fuel to transport our lamb around the world to Britain but we emit less greenhouse gas producing it than UK farmers and, overall, we’re more environmentally friendly. Of course to make that argument, National/ACT would have to show they are committed to tackling greenhouse gas emissions. Since they are going to have a select committee to investigate whether everyone else is wrong and climate change is (in Key’s words) “a hoax”, that will be a difficult argument to make.

So, our one shot at some kind of exemption from this tax has already been sabotaged by Key’s incompetent handling of climate change; his failure to understand it is now a foreign relations and trade issue, not just a way to shore up support from ACT, the farmers, and business. But then he’s gone and made it worse. When you are a little country and you want a big country to not do something bad to you, you have to remind them what a good little country you are, what good friends you are (like Clark did last year when our special visa status was under threat). What you don’t do is mouth off that you worry it will have a “contagion effect“, as if British policy is a virus that might infect other countries, as if countries responding to climate change is the new communist domino effect. And you don’t have your spokesperson call it “protectionism“, one of the dirtiest words in international relations.

Those inept comments have sunk any slim hope we might have had of getting an exemption from the departure tax.

Test number 2 for Key, fail.

Signature performance

Before our new Prime Minister went to APEC I wrote “it’s not an opportunity to get some names in your autograph book”. I feared he would view this meeting of the world’s most powerful people merely as an opportunity to get his picture snapped with some famous faces to impress the folks back home, rather than focusing on the substantive issues at hand.

So, I was interested to see what Key had to say about is experience there in the Herald’s “John Key on APEC” article today:

PERSONAL HIGHLIGHT
“It was a combination of meeting George Bush and Hu Jintao. They are leaders of such large nations and people I have read and heard a lot about.”

So, I guess just one question remains: did he get their autographs?

Key’s first test - fail

Well, John Key took my advice and gave a speech at APEC different from the pro forma MFAT-written speech that might have been expected. Unfortunately, it’s still all style and no substance, all bark but no bite.

Key is scathing of his fellow money-men for taking on more and more risk; he accuses them of being reckless. He says there needs to be more regulation of these “reckless” money-men (although one has to wonder how long he has believed these businesses are behaving badly, given he has most of his money invested in financiers Merrill Lynch).

So far, so good. He’s saying what the Left has been saying all along, and the Right is now conceding - the financiers are greedy and neoliberal de-regulation has permitted them to gamble too much with the result that the rest of us have ended up carrying the can for the problem they created (surprising he never said it during the campaign when he was making capital off his finance experience).

But, unfortunately, this is where he stops, whereas it should be where he is just beginning. He calls for regulation but offers no substantive suggestions for what regulation is needed; says reform is needed but not what reform that should be. Which means he’s not actually saying anything; it’s just empty bluster. In a disturbing continuation of the fluffiness that characterised his time as Opposition Leader, Key identifies a widely recognised problem and then says ‘we need to do something about that’. Real leadership is about providing solutions. So far we’ve seen none of that from Key.

This was Key’s first major test; his chance to make an impact on the international stage. He gets a partial credit for identifying the problem, and a bonus mark for rhetorical style, but on substance, the important stuff, he fails badly.

Musical Interlude: Forgot about Key

Some jokers have given new lyrics to the Dr. Dre and Eminem classic. Hilarious.

My favourite part is Hide’s cameo.

Hattip: Dolla$Trada

A chance to make his mark

John Key’s off on his first trip as PM tomorrow - APEC in Peru. When I saw him interviewed about this he seemed to think it would be ‘a good chance to meet other world leaders’ which, as former member of the dip corp, made me groan. You’re not a world leader just because you won an election in some wee country, John, you have to prove your worth on the international stage, as Clark did. More importantly, APEC is not just about meeting people  - it’s not a gentleman’s club, it’s not an opportunity to get some names in your autograph book - it’s about serious business.

The world is facing a triple crunch - credit, food, and oil. They’re all inter-related and global. Dealing with them effectively requires global reform of our economies. Part of this is a major re-work of the finance sector. IT is these issues that leaders will be discussing at APEC.

Now, John Key’s the ‘money-man with a heart’, it would be nice to think that he could offer some ideas to contribute to the solution. Perhaps he could take a leaf from the New Economics Foundation’s ‘From the ashes of the crash‘, which lays out 20 first step reforms, many of them concerning the organisation of the finance markets, to get us past the ‘triple crunch’ and create a Green New Deal. As a finance insider, Key could suggest how the industry needs to be reformed to prevent greedy, unaccountable gamblers putting us all at risk in return for a quick buck. You never know, his counterparts might even listen.

If he were to go to APEC and do that, actually make a difference rather than just notch up ‘pull asides’ and ‘one-on-ones’, it would really be something. He could then, deservedly, call himself a world leader.

John Key’s victory parade

No, not the one the Herald’s organising. Over at Scoop Lyndon Hood’s unveiled his own victory parade for John Key and I gotta say, it’s his best effort yet.

Go over and have a look.

The first test

Michael Cullen has released the latest economic and fiscal update, the one Key commented on in today’s papers but which he refused to reveal the details of to the public. Basically, it’s pretty bad news. How Key is responding or, rather, not responding to this first test is even worse news.

Since the Pre-election economic and fiscal update less than two months ago, the Treasury’s forecasts for economic growth in our top 20 trade partners have plummented - for example, next years’ projection has gone from 2.8% to just 1.8%. Commodity prices and export demand is expected to be hit significantly, leading to lower growth and a higher current account deficit. Unemployment is now predicted to hit 5.7% not 5.1% as in the PREFU and wage increases will be lower, perhaps below inflation. Lower tax revenue will see government debt blow out by another $5 billion on top of the so-called ‘decade of deficits’ projected in the PREFU.

The global financial crisis is not National/Act’s fault, just as it wasn’t the Labour-led government’s fault. But they do have a choice as to how they respond. National/Act’s plan seems to be to carry on as if nothing has happened, pushing through the same agenda that they announced months ago without modifications for changed economic situation. It’s worth noting that the cost of National’s tax package additional to Labour’s is about the same size as the increase in projected debt over the same period. In other words, National could prevent this debt blow out by cancelling its tax cuts for the rich. It won’t do so, of course. National should make the creation of useful jobs a priority, as Labour intended to do to keep benefit numbers and crime down, and income and tax revenue up. But it won’t do that, either.

We said it before the election and bears repeating now. It is not just the declared policies of a party that matter but their underlying ideology, the set of principles which shape their response to emerging issues. National might have presented that ‘Nice Mr Key’ facade and some appropriately moderate policies but underneath he is rightwinger leading a conservative party. His response already looks like being a typical conservative response - bury your head in the sand and hope everything turns out OK in the end. That is not the response we need right now.

Key’s ‘no worries, folks’ response to this latest update also makes me wonder if Key really has bitten off more than he can chew. Does he have the strength to disappoint his supporters when it is in the longer-term interests of New Zealand as a whole to do so? Does he have the leadership skills and courage to actively steer New Zealand through these difficult straits or will he grimly stick to the pre-laid course as the storm hits us? So far, he has tried to downplay the issue, he evidently hopes it will just go away. Well, it’s not just going to go away and if Mr Key is not up to the job of confronting it that is not just a problem for him, it is a problem for all of us.

To do list

Getting elected is easy if you promise people the world and tell different audience different, contradictory things. It’s especially easy when you’ve got the media whole-heartedly on your side.

Governing is a bit tougher though. Those same commentators who thought it was great fun regurgitating your latest attack line will also find it great fun attacking you. Remember, politics is just a game to them. More importantly though, the people who voted for you expect you to deliver on the expectations you’ve created.

Let’s have a look at that list of expectations National has created, based on both what National has promised and what most National voters believe National will do, based on comments in our ‘a change to what?’ posts:

- more rapid growth
- higher wages
- better healthcare
- better education
- lower interest rates
- lower inflation
- lower crime
- no reductions in Super
- fund Plunketline
- fewer people on benefits
- no more ‘power crises’
- repeal the ETS
- abolish Maori seats
- no cuts to Working for Families
- no blow out in government debt
- more infrastructure investment
- standardised testing from year 1
- reduced poverty
- cleaner waterways
- Disabled children have fully funded school support
- NZ getting to the top of the OECD.
- no abuse of the 90-day no work rights period
- no dysfunction from privatised ACC
- repeal the amendments to s59
- longer prison sentences
- bootcamps stopping youth crime
- lower tax
- ultra-fast broadband to the home in a few years
- lower greenhouse emissions
- fewer core public servants
- improved public services
- higher savings rates, more sign-up to Kiwisaver
- no sale of Kiwibank
- cheap toll roads
- no more congestion
- lower emigration
- no government scandals
- no trouble with support parties
- Herceptin funded
- revamp EFA but don’t bring back secret trusts, anonymous donations
- national testing in schools
- no individual case failures of health, education, or other government services
- investment in Kiwirail

Key will need to deliver or there will be some mightily disappointed voters.

[updates. yes Key has said he won't repeal the s59 amendment but National also purposely used it as an example of something bad Labour did, they created an expectation that it will be removed and that's what matters for the purposes of this list. If I've forgotten anyhting please let me know.]

What goes around

Well, after years of National and its proxies beating up stupid, pointless stories about Labour MPs spending taxpayers’ money on ‘perks’ like driving around the country doing their jobs it looks like it’s finally coming back to bite them.

This morning the Dominion Post reports on its front page that John Key spent $217,615 on chaffeur-driven limos last year, more than any other MP.

Now I don’t begrudge MPs travelling in comfort, they do long hours and often need to work while on the road.

But given the amount of noise National and its proxies have made over Labour MPs’ expenses in recent years (if this had been Helen a few weeks ago Farrar would have been all over it) they’re going to have a hard time explaining their silence now.

Fare thee well

Firstly I must say congratulations to the winners on the night, and sympathies to those who did not succeed. We may not hold politicians in high regard but they put themselves on the line.  The voting public have had their say and that, if nothing else, we must celebrate and respect. But for Labour the price has been high. It is the end of an era - and a time for both reflection and optimism for the future. Ian Lllewellyn said it well when he wrote:

…it was Miss Clark’s political and policy partnership with her deputy and finance minister Michael Cullen that built a legacy that is likely to stand the test of time. The introduction of Working for Families, the New Zealand Superannuation Fund (also known as the Cullen Fund), Kiwibank, KiwiSaver and the renationalisation of the rail system all stand as a complete turn around of the policies of the 1990s.

It is a testament to the Clark/Cullen administration that the only way National leader John Key could win office was by promising to keep all of those institutions in place or tinkering with them at the edges.

Clark and Cullen have been a formidable team - the challenge for Labour is to create and support the next generation. Meantime we can look to the challenges ahead for Mr Key, as summarised by Steve Braunias:

The real John Key - assuming he exists - now has to stand up. He said he was ambitious for New Zealand; New Zealand, broke and vulnerable, is ambitious for John Key. He has been granted the opportunity of a lifetime.

And we will all be watching.

Making the decision

Have you still not decided who you’ll vote for? The final poll shows the race between a National/ACT/United Future or a Labour/Green/Progressive/Maori government is neck and neck, so your choice matters. Here is some advice and tools that may help:

When choosing who to vote for there are three things you should consider:
policy - what does the party plan to do? Is that in the best interests of you, your family, your community, and the wider world?
trust - do you believe that the party will do what it says it will?
competence - do you think the people who would govern if that party is in power are up to the job?

Change for its own sake is not a reason to vote for a party. The Government has a very important job, you want the best parties to make up that government. Vote on the issues that matter to you, not trivial things that parties often concentrate on. The biggest issues for most people are having a job, getting enough money to afford a decent standard of living, health and education. Real freedom is not light-bulbs, it is having the income security to afford the life you want for you and your family.

Since Labour came to power, unemployment has fallen to record lows, wages have risen strongly, crime is down, health and education have improved, Working for Families and tax cuts have reduced tax to nearly zero for many families, government debt has been reduced, and private saving has been encouraged with Kiwisaver. A Labour-Green government will continue to build on this record. This article describes NZ under a Labour-led government

National’s record is wages dropping and high unemployment, this time their policies are to weaken work rights. National will not be putting more money into health and education, it would increase government debt and cut Kiwisaver in half. National’s tax cuts would increase tax for many families and would only give others 1-2% more in after-tax income. This article describes NZ under a National-led government

- This test calculates how well your personal views line up with the policies of each party
- This tax cut calculator is the only one that includes money you would lose from Kiwisaver contributions under National.
- The Standard Line series of posts addresses a number of the issues that have arisen during this campaign.

Key the opposite of Obama

Supports a Woman’s Right to Choose
This is abortion rights. John Key was asked about abortion rights in the debate and he lied as usual. From I/S’s post:

Last year in Parliament two failed amendments were attempted trying to replace the government’s status quo nominees with anti-abortion ones. One attempted replacement was a doctor who has worked for an anti-abortion counselling service. The amendment was put forward by Peter Brown (NZ First) and supported by all the NZ First MPs who voted and 21 of the 36 National MPs who voted. His supporters included John Key, Bill English, Tony Ryall and Judith Collins — the four hoping to be Prime Minister, Deputy PM, and Ministers for Health and Social Development. The second attempted replacement put forward by Gordon Copeland gained similar levels of support.

Make the U.S. a Leader on Climate Change
Whereas here the National party gets worried that we’re ahead of the world when we’re behind.

Increase Fuel Economy Standards
Aren’t car dealers and those who complain about the so-called nanny state on the right here complaining about Labour’s new emmisions standards on imported used cars?

Strengthening Domestic Violence Laws
What has Labour being doing a lot of lately trying to bring attention to a certain issue…

Here is Obama’s page on woman’s issues. National doesn’t have any policy on women’s issues whatsoever on their website.

Expanding Early Childhood Education
Labour party policy, not National’s

Ending the War in Iraq
The National party wanted us in the Iraq war whereas Labour kept us out of it.

[hattip: Guv]

Key used Nat research unit to search for smear on Clark’s husband

After weeks of griping about dirty tactics, it has been revealed in the NBR that Key ordered the tax-payer funded National Party research unit to rake over the records of Prime Minister Clark’s husband Peter Davis’s academic grants looking for a smear. Clark revealed the attempted smear in an interview on AltTV.

“In June this year when the health research council grants grants were announced my husband got a grant,” Miss Clark said, “because he’s a researcher at a university, goes back 40 years. When those grants were announced National put in an Official Information Act request demanding to see all the reviewers’ reports, really trying to get at some kind of smear that my husband got grants not because of his academic reputation but because of me.”

Suffice to say, National’s attack on Clark’s family was a fizzer

Is it appropriate for Key to order taxpayer funds to be spent trolling through the affairs of the family of another politician, especially as he has demanded that no-one look into his past?

You can watch the AltTV interview on Sky or streaming on the internet at www.alttv.co.nz at 8pm.

John’s walkabout itinerary

We’ve been emailed a copy of the itinerary for John Key’s last day of campaigning. It looks like he’s doing a last minute dash around heartland Labour seats which fits with their strategy of going into their opponent’s base.

If you are in Auckland later today you should pop along and have a chat with Key as it only seems fair that you should get the chance to question the man who wants to run our country:

7 November 20
Wellington
7am Meet commuters
Wellington Railway Station

7.30am
Depart for airport
Palmerston North

9.00am
Public Rally & Walkabout
Terrace End Shopping Centre

10.15am
Depart for airport

New Plymouth
11.45am
Public Rally
Cnr Devon & Currie Streets

12.20pm
Depart for airport
Auckland

1.40pm
Join Campaign Bus
Auckland Airport

2.15pm
Walkabout
Sylvia Park

3.00pm
Walkabout
Cnr White Swan & Richardson Roads
Mount Roskill

3.45pm
Walkabout
Chancery Lane
Auckland City

4.45pm
Walkabout
West City Mall
Waitakere City

5.30pm
Closing Rally
Settlers Lodge
81 Waimauku Station Road
Waimauku

Key to work rights activist: you’re an idiot

You know, you can fly around acting all presidential if you like in a cheap attempt to wow the press gallery but that doesn’t make you the Kiwi Obama.

Obama, for one, is a big proponent of work rights and raising the minimum wage. Key is not. His party’s vague work rights policy looks like a move back to the dark old days of the Employment Contracts Act.

Obama, also, can handle the stresses of campaigning and his is civil to everyone. Key cannot and is not.

When a protester asked Key today to “tell the truth” on the changes he would make to the Employment Relations Act, Key responded “the truth is you’re an idiot”. If you’re cracking under the pressure of a few plane trips and campaign stops, you’re not up to the real job.

Way to spike your own pre-victory tour, Johnny. Very Presidential.