Author Archive for Dancer

Xmas Eve whimsy: little yellow ducks

Published
by
Dancer
on December 24, 2008
in articles
. 2 Comments

The Guardian informs us that:

Sailors, fishermen and cruise passengers should be on the alert. If anybody spots a yellow rubber duck bobbing on the ocean waves, Nasa would like to know.The US space agency has yet to find any trace of 90 bathtub toys that were dropped through holes in Greenland’s ice three months ago in an effort to track the way the Arctic icecap is melting.

yellow-duck

The idea that yellow ducks are assisting scientists in the investigation of climate change seemed to have a certain quirky humour. And does anyone else remember the “Little Yellow Ducks of Freedom” contribution from ex-ACT MP Muriel Newman?  When I read story in the Guardian my mind immediately leapt to the book she published - although a quick search of the net made me wonder if it was my imagination. What other contributions from ACT do we anticipate will similarly fade from view?

Impressions of the House

Published
by
Dancer
on December 16, 2008
in Parliament
. 12 Comments

First question time - the teams square off. Let the games commence. So what was the vibe? Well both sides kept getting their language muddled up (Minister/ member etc) as they tried to remember that they had shuffled around in their roles. So what of the performance?

I start by making it clear this is an impression only - I didn’t watch every second of question time (which I think lasted around an hour and a quarter or so?). I think the Government benches should feel reasonably pleased that they held their own (especially after being on the back foot from last week’s urgency lessons at Labour’s hand). Key wasn’t quite up to his charming best but he didn’t wilt or overplay his hand. Goff made his points (perhaps a little on the long-winded side) although I’m not sure they were especially relevant to those of us who are moving into holiday mode (and who are praying that we keep a paypacket in order to pay for our indulgences).

English was clear, crisp and to the point - his experience of the battle ground clearly shining through. Made some good points about Labour’s supposed overspend/underplan approach. I suspect we will see this line repeated frequently as they set the stage for spending cuts (or “re-prioritisation”).

Unfortunately for Chris Carter, question three turned from an attack opportunity on Anne Tolley and her commitment to teachers regarding the 90 day bill into a messy brain teaser which he couldn’t  quite master. I would have preferred to see the more experienced hand of Trevor Mallard running the attack, especially as he handled both the 90 days and the national standards issues so well last week in the House. Hopefully the limelight will be shared out more widely next year.

Cullen showed himself as being in a league of his own when it comes to both procedure and point. He angles the political alongside the process to the point that it looks simple and seamless. There was a slight counter-punch from Brownlee which hinted that not all might have gone so smoothly on Labour’s side regarding the lodging of questions, but not enough to take the gloss of Cullen’s mastery

National allowed itself an worthwhile attacks on ACC (unexpected costs), housing (the need to for, helpfully covering up their flip flop on the matter) and lightbulbs (incandescent). They did enough to feel that they weren’t the pushover Labour was hoping for.

Also pleasing was that we had good representation from the smaller parties, with Jim Anderton showing that he has lost none of his passion for agriculture and a well honed angle (do National really value agriculture). Jeanette tackled a subject close to her heart (ETS) while ACT did the equivalent (the EFA). The Maori Party found themselves in the midst of a tangle as to the boundaries of what Dr Pita Sharples could be asked. It was great to hear so much of te reo used through the question - something that also came from National. Labour would do well to consider how it is to handle their presence on Maori issues in the House (as elsewhere).

As for the new speaker, he is still finding his feet and it shows. With Cullen watching his every move it is not an easy place to be - in that he has my sympathy.

All in all it made me wish we had a chance to see them settle in a bit more this year, but I guess there’s time enough in the New Year. That’s when the real work for National begins.

Enough already - no more tests please

Published
by
Dancer
on December 16, 2008
in education
. 15 Comments

When I went to my first parent/teacher interview I was amazed at the breadth of markers against which my daughter’s performance was being evaluated. I admired the commitment of the teacher to such a level of engagement. I felt fully aware and informed of my daughter’s strengths, and the areas we needed to work on. So when I read of National’s plans to introduce national testing I was agnostic to say the least. Now I see the NZ Principals Federation saying that the new Government’s bid to set national literacy and numeracy standards “totally unnecessary” and they want to work with the Ministry of Education to make sure no extra testing is put in place:

New Zealand Principals Federation president and Balclutha School principal Paddy Ford said schools already had testing tools to find under achieving pupils. Tests such as Assessment Tools for Teaching and Learning (ASTLE) (progress and achievement tests), Running Records (reading test) and STAR (school reading test) were used extensively, he said.

“We don’t need any more tests. We’ve already got enough tests in place - we’ve just got to use the ones we’ve already got. The Government is trying to do something that’s totally unnecessary.”

This government was elected on a platform of reducing compliance and red tape. Surely we have an inconsistency here? Perhaps that’s why they passed this legislation without allowing time through the select committee process for groups and individuals to make their contribution - and highlight that the changes were really not required in the first place.

Meanwhile what scenario awaits parents with children due to start school next year? I fancy the idea of an opt out clause myself……

Rod Oram: The global crisis is real

Published
by
Dancer
on December 15, 2008
in articles and economy
. 5 Comments

As usual an insightful analysis from Rod Oram on the need for our political and business sector leaders to better come to grips with what the international economic situation means domestically. He says:

Every sector of this economy has its own set of structural challenges forced on it by global conditions. Yet, we’re hearing nothing from the likes of Federated Farmers and the Tourism Industry Association that suggests they are even aware of their issues, let alon[e] planning a response.

The same is true for the new government, judging by last week’s throne speech. Yes, the speech had a few perfunctory paragraphs about the global crisis, but it offered no insight into how New Zealand might respond or the role government might play. “The driving goal of the new government will be to grow the New Zealand economy in order to deliver greater prosperity, security and opportunities to all New Zealanders.”

Yes, but what is New Zealand’s role in the world economy? How is it changing? How shall we respond to those threats and opportunities? All the speech offered was a bit of fiscal stimulus via tax cuts planned long before the crisis hit and some totally vague promises about the likes of transitional help for people made redundant, more infrastructure spending, better education standards and attempts to improve the bureaucracy.

It was a speech for a time and conditions that no longer exist. When reality does sink in, we’ll plummet. Let’s hope the pohutukawa we grab on the way down has roots strong and deep enough to hold us.

With the details of National’s transition package for workers who lose their jobs due today it would be great to see alongside it some more details of where NZ should be heading to ride out the stormy days ahead.

Keith Rankin: Controversy over National’s Tax Cuts

Published
by
Dancer
on December 12, 2008
in national and tax
. 5 Comments

If you’re feeling lost in the discussion around National’s tax plans there’s handy analysis from Keith Rankin who point out:

… persons earning between $14,000 and $24,000 will receive annual tax cuts of less than $100. They will receive nothing before 2011. This contrasts with Labour’s already legislated for tax cuts, from 2010, which target this group of workers… The figures [table below] clearly show that, for low income workers on about $20,000 (most will be in part‑time, short‑time, or variable‑time work situations), National will give them a tax cut of just over $1 per week.


Further, workers who don’t qualify for the IECT will be worse off than they would have been under Labour for incomes up to about $45,000. National has been unable to enunciate any sound reasons for the exclusion of persons earning less than $24,000 from access to the IETC…

It is particularly important that the Government realises that, as unemployment rises next year, many people currently earning more than $24,000 per year will find themselves with annual incomes below $24,000 in the years to come. It will be cruel to give them an IETC, like giving a person an umbrella, only to take it away when the rain comes, when they most need it.

And he goes onto provide a policy solution (of changing the IECT). Let’s hope the round building pays attention and embraces the opportunity to make some improvements.

Valuing children

Published
by
Dancer
on December 12, 2008
in families
. 21 Comments

I know I won’t be alone in being disappointed in the results of the Unicef survey, which says that “New Zealand has an appalling child poverty rate, spends too little on early childhood services for which there is unequal access, and lags far behind other developed nations in parental leave provisions, according to a new report.”

There are some real issues to grapple with here, especially around the use of child care for very young children. There’s a balance between economic necessity (family needs more than one income to survive) and what is in the best, long term interests of children. If agreement is reached that birth to three is the most important time for investing in children’s development and potential then surely we need to be looking at programmes and policies that support this.

To this end I heard an interesting item regarding the survey on National Radio (link to audio here) which suggested that in Sweden twenty years ago the use of subsidised care was widely used for young children but since their extended paid parental leave it’s now rare for children under 18 months to be in care. Surely that has to be a good thing for the children (and I would hope the parents too!). Contrast that to the UK and Australia where a majority of under ones are in some form of daily child-care.

This morning Dr Ian Hassall told Morning Report that there has been a lot of talk about women returning to the workplace, to increase New Zealand’s productivity.  He said that means that a whole generation of children are growing up in situations outside the home, without close family relationships. We may end up paying the price for this in ten or fifteen years time with a society that lacks cohesion, with higher rates of relationship breakdowns etc.

What are some of the options here in NZ? Remember last year when the Families Commission “proposed a three-stage increase from the present 14 weeks leave to six months initially, then nine months and finally 12 months by 2015.” At the time Judith Collins (spokesperson on family affairs) said she would take the Families Commission proposal to the National caucus.

“It would have to go to caucus and have the costings done and be weighed up against other initiatives, but I’m generally not against it,” she said.

What is their response now that there is growing evidence of the need for change, and now that they are in the position to do something about it? What about National’s pre-election policy on some of the key issues like extended paid parental leave? Difficult to say as it is hard to find on their website (indeed I can’t actually spot their policy at all!), but I hope that they accept the challenge to debate the issues. Given they decided to cancel the Family Commission conference, which was to look at how families were coping with the economic crisis, I am not feeling very optimistic.

Tough law for tough times

Published
by
Dancer
on December 10, 2008
in workers' rights
. 2 Comments

Against the backdrop of tough new employment laws there’re predictions that “35,000 jobs could be lost in the construction sector.” No wonder that there are reports that Kiwis are worried about losing their jobs!

A quarter of workers are afraid of losing their jobs, while more than half the workforce is not expecting a pay rise in the next year, new figures show. The statistics - part of a Research NZ survey released yesterday - show 24 per cent of those in paid work do not feel their employment is secure, compared with 73 per cent who believe their jobs are safe…

Low-income households were the most gloomy about their job security, with a third of workers concerned about losing employment. In households earning more than $70,000, some 18 per cent had job security concerns. Almost a third - 31 per cent - of young workers aged 15 to 29 did not feel their jobs were secure. A total of 55 per cent did not expect a pay rise in the next 12 months either….

And a Manpower survey just out shows Kiwi employees could have reason to be glum. The Employment Outlook Survey of New Zealand hiring trends - released yesterday - reveals the pace of hiring is set to slow further in the first quarter of 2009.

Given the number of young, low income Maori households which will be affected by the changes I was pleased to just hear on the radio that the Maori party will not be supporting the legislation.

And in case the whole thing seems a bit academic, a study out yesterday confirmed that the topic of jobs matters to lots of us. The Survey of Working Life, by Statistics New Zealand, found that of the 2,138,900 people employed in the March quarter 73.6 per cent were permanently employed, 12 per cent self-employed, 7.7 per cent temporarily employed and 5.7 per cent were employers. What’s great news is that most people (84.1%) said they were satisfied, or very satisfied, with their main job and and three-quarters (75.8%) said they were satisfied, or very satisfied, with their work-life balance. Let’s hope we can keep it that way, despite this backward step from National.

Hanging up on Barack

Published
by
Dancer
on December 7, 2008
in articles and us politics
. 2 Comments

According to the BBC:

US Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen thought she was being hoaxed when a man who sounded a lot like Barack Obama called her - so she hung up on him. In fact, the man at the other end of the line was indeed President-elect Obama himself. It took two further phone-calls before Ms Ros-Lehtinen was convinced that the telephone call was genuine.

You’d have to feel a little silly wouldn’t you?

The ethical considerations of Christmas trees

Published
by
Dancer
on December 7, 2008
in articles and international
. 12 Comments

Christmas is coming. We want to feel like we’re part of the sustainable, clean and green in action movement. So what sort of Christmas tree should be twinkling? Leo Hickman of the Guardian asks these questions and more:

Aren’t they just a colossal waste of money? Can such a decadent waste of resources be justified in our (supposedly) eco-aware times? (Such cries have been heard for centuries – Oliver Cromwell banged on about the “heathen tradition” of decorated trees, but he had his own all-together-different reasons.)

And then we buckle and relent as the children at our feet whimper and plead with us to get one. So what are the options for those of us who still want to follow this once-pagan yuletide tradition?

His options include buying a real tree (checking for sustainability, proximity and lack of herbicides); buy a plastic tree (which lasts for how many years before the children/cat/dog anihilates it’s “leafy greenness?); decorate an exisiting plant (my personal favorite - adds colour to the garden too, just don’t put the presents out unless you have trustworthy neighbours) or the “do nothing” option (not so easy for child-zoned households).

But don’t forget our own Kiwi Christmas tree, the Pohutakawa, in all this. Whether you have one of these in your garden, down the street, in the park or at the beach - do you really need anything more?

Finally if you want a lesson in why you should always be careful of leaving those glinting lights on in a tinder-dry tree watch this:

Attention turns to local government

Published
by
Dancer
on November 26, 2008
in uncategorized
. 24 Comments

Seems the commentators are definately picking local government as one of the issues to watch in terms of how the new Nationaladministration handles MMP politics (and how the opposition parties handle it as well I guess). Gordon Campbell notes:

Giving the local government portfolio to Rodney Hide creates some management challenges for John Key. Can Key really afford to let Hide loose down the privatising track in local government – which would entail the wholesale contracting out of council services and the privatizing of water and roads, along lines set out in Hide’s private members’ bills on the subject. Only a minuscule number of people in New Zealand voted for this agenda.

Or will Key do the exact opposite – and try to repeat what Kevin Rudd is doing right now in Australia ? Rudd is treating local government as the best, most readily available jobs engine to soak up the unemployment bound to flow next year from the global recession. Which path will Key choose to follow – yesterday’s extremism, or tomorrow’s pragmatism?

While in the NZ Herald Brian Rudman observes:

There are many in local government scratching their heads after the appointment of Act leader Rodney Hide as Minister of Local Government and wondering what on earth they did to upset Prime Minister John Key so much….what does he [Key] do but appoint as Minister of Local Government the leader of a party which is pledged to strip most of its functions over to private operators, confining councillors “to the core activities that produce public benefits, such as regulations, flood controls and roads”.

Top of the scorched earth local government policy list Mr Hide was elected on was that “local government will be required to shed its commercial activity, thereby eliminating the need to separate regulatory and commercial functions between local and regional councils”. Policy number two was that “roads and piped water will be supplied on a fully commercial basis”.

When can we expect to hear what the actual agenda for local government is over the next three years - and what will be the processes by which any change occurs? Local government is often seen as the quiet cousin of central government politics but in actual fact it has a pretty big impact on all of us. I, for one, am feeling a little nervous! I want more than footpaths and rubbish collection as council duties.

The Bard offers chance for new Minister

Published
by
Dancer
on November 15, 2008
in education
. 46 Comments

This afternoon I read with a degree of surprise that Shakespeare’s days as standard classroom fare could be numbered:

Shakespeare’s plays and other great works of literature considered too difficult for some pupils will disappear from classrooms under proposed changes to the curriculum, alarmed principals say. There are also fears that basic content in maths, history and business studies will be axed in a drive to make subjects easier, “dumbing down” schoolchildren and further undermining NCEA. Education officials are reviewing the way secondary-school subjects are assessed in preparation for the new curriculum, to be introduced from 2010.

Well that should be an easy enough re-direction for our yet to be named Education Minister! I look forward to seeing the National team in action on this one.

Crosby/Textor on repeat

Published
by
Dancer
on November 15, 2008
in crosby textor and national
. 58 Comments

The topic of Crosby Textor has emerged again with a story in the NZ Herald. While it is unsurprising to read that Crosby Textor is “drumming up business after last week’s election by offering insights into the new Government and its personalities” there’s another aspect I think also deserves examination.

How and why is this material entering the public domain - apparently after National’s electoral success?

Earlier this year it was reported that Crosby Textors advice to the National party was being paid for out of Parliamentary funds, and the information:

included diary-type references and dates and details of Mr Key’s meetings, prompted the party to raise concerns about security with Parliamentary Services.

I don’t think we ever had a definitive answer on how that material got into the public arena. But we do know it wasn’t Parlimantary Services who told TV3 about the visit of Lord Ashcoft. Duncan Garner said that came from within National. So will the signing of the Ministerial warrants lead to silence? Or will the leaks continue?

Gordon Campbell: new Labour leadership

Published
by
Dancer
on November 12, 2008
in articles, labour and maori party
. 42 Comments

As we’ve come to expect, a thought provoking piece from Gordon Campbell, who says

…the public may one day come to rue the change they sought on Saturday. But if and when they do, there is no guarantee that a paternalistic Labour would be the only, or best source of relief. The Greens, now that they are finally free from any structural ties to Labour, will be trying hard to supplant them as the most effective opposition party on the left. On industrial relations and beneficiary issues, the Greens have already been making much of the running in recent years. If Labour remains intent on projecting a kinder, more efficient brand of centrism, they could well be overtaken significantly on their left - and the risk will be increased if Act does manage to pull National further to the right.

Labour was a formidable team when last in opposition - tuned in to their networks, activists busy on the ground, and political issues to the fore. Let’s see whether this brave new team can live up to their counterparts of old (and how much of it those who were there before can remember). I’m thinking there will be interesting times ahead! Campbell also makes a good observation regarding the Maori party and their decision whether or not to become part of the government:

…much of Key’s hopes for a wider consensus will depend in the next few days on whether the Maori Party takes the bait, and comes on board with National. Why they would want to do so remains a mystery – because being a Minister isn’t a free lunch, and entails wider responsibility for the government to which said Minister belongs….

Update: i’ve just read “The Maori Party has reached a draft agreement with the National Party and will take it to its supporters to consider as soon as this evening.” Hui anyone?

Fare thee well

Published
by
Dancer
on November 9, 2008
in articles, helen clark, john key and labour
. 37 Comments

Firstly I must say congratulations to the winners on the night, and sympathies to those who did not succeed. We may not hold politicians in high regard but they put themselves on the line.  The voting public have had their say and that, if nothing else, we must celebrate and respect. But for Labour the price has been high. It is the end of an era - and a time for both reflection and optimism for the future. Ian Lllewellyn said it well when he wrote:

…it was Miss Clark’s political and policy partnership with her deputy and finance minister Michael Cullen that built a legacy that is likely to stand the test of time. The introduction of Working for Families, the New Zealand Superannuation Fund (also known as the Cullen Fund), Kiwibank, KiwiSaver and the renationalisation of the rail system all stand as a complete turn around of the policies of the 1990s.

It is a testament to the Clark/Cullen administration that the only way National leader John Key could win office was by promising to keep all of those institutions in place or tinkering with them at the edges.

Clark and Cullen have been a formidable team - the challenge for Labour is to create and support the next generation. Meantime we can look to the challenges ahead for Mr Key, as summarised by Steve Braunias:

The real John Key - assuming he exists - now has to stand up. He said he was ambitious for New Zealand; New Zealand, broke and vulnerable, is ambitious for John Key. He has been granted the opportunity of a lifetime.

And we will all be watching.

Video: Get the vote out

Published
by
Dancer
on November 6, 2008
in election 2008 and youtube
. 12 Comments

Want a say in who will run the country - let’s get the vote out.

Just as long as they know it’s Saturday 8th November!

PSA tackles the stats

Published
by
Dancer
on November 3, 2008
in election 2008 and public services
. 38 Comments

The PSA have put together some interesting numbers on the size of the public service. They appear to tell a different story to the one we’ve been hearing about from Mr Key who wants a” razor gang of cabinet ministers to trim state sector fat”. For example:

We’re on par with Australia:

  • Australian public service comprises 0.99 % of the population
  • New Zealand public service comprises 0.98, % of the population

Government spending as a proportion of GDP is down slightly:

  • 1999=32.4
  • 2008=31.8

The public service is mainly outside Wellington: 58.1% are outside Wellington with the fastest growing areas Otago, Northland, and Southland

These and other statistics (and some great graphs) are in an election special in the PSA’s election feature on their website or download the psreport.

Statistics are always open to interpretation but these provide some context for deciding whether we need a special Cabinet Expenditure Control Committee or not…

Public politics

Published
by
Dancer
on November 2, 2008
in activism and election 2008
. 46 Comments

In today’s Herald six prominant NZer’s nail their political colours to the mast:

Sir Paul Reeves: electorate vote Maori party, party vote Labour; “Labour will still get his party vote, and he would prefer that the Maori Party formed a government with Labour, rather than National”

Graham Lowe: “ending a 40-year relationship with Labour to vote ACT…”I like Helen, and John Key seems a nice bloke, too. But a lot of their policies seem similar and they both seem to be playing catch-up football. Rodney has gone out on the attack

Oscar Kightley: “is a Labour man. “I’ve always been reluctant to show my colours, but I’m getting older and realising the importance of standing up for something,” says Samoan-born Kightley. “Election day is the only day everyone is truly equal.”

Miriama Smith: “now she’s joining fellow thespians Robyn Malcolm and Miranda Harcourt in publicly backing the Greens…It helped that the party has named Labour as its preferred coalition party.”

Michael Hill: will vote for the National Party. “We’re over-governed here to such an unbelievable degree. You can’t even make a decision for yourself any more and that’s a very sad state of affairs.”

Bevan Docherty: the usually-Labour voter is switching to National.Yes, Helen Clark’s done a great job, “but she just surrounds herself with idiots…He likes National’s approach to sports funding, and derives hope from shades of “Think Big” Muldoonism.

Three centre/left, three centre/right - all have their reasons. And that’s why it’s so hard to make the call. And that’s why getting people out and voting will be so important.

SSTimes finds more $ in the pocket

Published
by
Dancer
on November 2, 2008
in economy and election 2008
. 22 Comments

From this mornings SSTimes:

New research has revealed a dramatic reversal in financial fortunes for the average Kiwi family, which is now $60 better off each week than it was six months ago. Falling mortgage costs teamed with the government’s October 1 tax cuts and a beefed up Working for Families package are the main reasons for the windfall, with a slight drop in petrol prices also helping.

Pundits are divided on whether the reversal will boost Labour’s chances when voters go to the polls on Saturday, but say it will help our recovery from the global financial crisis.

So do we think it is going to make a difference to Saturday’s vote? We’ve moved on quite a long way since backpocket issues took on such prominance. Having a bit more money might not be at the forefront of people’s minds as a positive, but nor is the lack of it the irritant it once was.

Arseneau: Election too close to call

Published
by
Dancer
on October 31, 2008
in articles, election 2008 and polls
. 64 Comments

In her blog column Teresa Arseneau discusses the polls overall, and what happens if the largest party doesn’t form the government:

Several of these polls suggest that while National is likely to “win” the election - receive both the most votes and seats - it may not govern….But in an MMP election it is important to think in terms of party-blocs. And the source of a vote gain is as important as the gain itself. In the 2005 election, National grew its vote mainly at the expense of its potential partners - Act, UnitedFuture and New Zealand First - thus consolidating the centre-right vote. This partly explains why National’s support is now so large and why its potential coalition partners’ so small.

It is misleading then to simply compare the support of National and Labour. A more accurate picture is gained by looking at the relative support for potential governing blocs….The election is finely balanced between the two blocs.

The next week is crucial: one in four voters is still likely undecided. And support for the two blocs is so finely balanced that changes of less than 1% to each party’s vote, changes much smaller than the margin of error, could significantly alter the outcome of the election.

This time next week we’ll be into the final moments - and then it’s up to the voter. Centre right or Centre left?

Brian Fallow: words of warning on bailout

Published
by
Dancer
on October 30, 2008
in uncategorized
. 11 Comments

Feeling attracted to the idea of getting your mortgage covered should the sky fall in? Brian Fallow comments on the perils of Key’s policy plans:

“We are in the mess we are in because of a cavalier attitude towards debt and risk by households and their bankers, both here and in more important economies overseas. Yet the prevailing view seems to be that the solution is to be equally reckless with the taxpayer’s money. Having privatised the gains, it’s time to socialise the losses. That doesn’t just relocate the problem. It makes it worse by creating a disconnect between actions and consequences.

The latest example of this is the National Party’s proposed “rescue package” for people who lose their jobs and consequently struggle to meet their loan obligations. It sounds compassionate. It might even be seen as a pragmatic measure that would limit further downward pressure on house prices.

But that is a thin coating of sugar around a bitter pill, made of a substance called moral hazard.

It heightens the risk that we will entrench, rather than reduce, the very structural problems which underlie the credit crunch.”