Author Archive for lprent

Act lied and gets away with it

At the Media Law Journal, Wellington based media lawyer Steven Price has been looking at the recent decisions of the Advertising Standards Complaint Board (a self-regulatory body) related to the election. There are a series of them and the decisions are weird. More importantly they are ineffectual in the great tradition of industry self-regulatory bodies. This can be seen clearly in the third decision - where there was clear lie from Act, but which they get no penalties for.

Wrong - ASC Appeal Board upheld a complaint against Labour that a YouTube video saying the National was planning to cut KiwiSaver in half. Steven thought that decision was wrong, and so do I. Everything I’ve seen says that the contributions from government will be dropped by more than half, and employer contributions by a lot. But it appears that the ASCAB have a problem with numbers.

Wrong again! - The ASCB upheld a complaint against Act that their advertising “ACT was the only party opposed to the Emissions Trading Scheme” was incorrect. The Kiwi Party also opposed the ETS. In this case we’re talking about a party that had virtually no chance of getting into politics. In fact they got less votes than the Bill & Ben party. Again the ASCB seems to have a problem distinguishing the numbers and reality.

Right - Act said “Safe” New Zealand is now almost three times more violent than the US.

Steven comments

As usual, the ASCB invited ACT to substantiate its claim. It seems from the decision that ACT, despite being given two opportunities, could not. The party merely talked generally about how it depends on how you compare statistics. It seems that ACT didn’t supply any actual source for its claim.

Pause here. How staggering that ACT was happy to garner votes with this claim, but not prepared to substantiate it  - even to a body whose self-regulatory nature ACT would presumably applaud.

Looking at how Act played with some incomparable statistics to get to this statement, it is completely unjustifiable, and in my opinion has to have been done deliberately. This is probably why they didn’t bother to mount a credible defense against the complaint. The question is what gets done about it?

Well nothing - the decision comes from a self-regulatory industry body with no teeth. From the ASCB judgment

In making its ruling the Complaints Board acknowledged that it had received advice from the Advertiser that the claim as it stood would not be used in any future advertising. This it said indicated the Advertiser’s commitment to the self-regulatory process.

Well of course not - the election is over. It doesn’t mean that they swear off using this type of dirty political tactic again, or that other parties will not follow the same path. After all there are no penalties. The lie has presumably helped Act get votes by screwing the political system. This is something that they rail against for everyone else - ask Winston. Act are hypocrites asking for penalties for others and avoiding it themselves.

Now what was Rodney put in charge of again? Something to do with government regulation that usually carries penalties. This from a party that wants to reduce government regulation and prefers self-regulation. So now we know the type of self-regulation that Act prefers - ineffectual.

More upgrades

I’ve added two front-end features to the site. Automatic comment closing and a WSIWYG comment editor.

Comments get automatically closed on posts older than 30 days, unless that the post remains quite active. It displays like

The main reason for this update is because a common troll tactic recently has been to drop comments into very old posts. It does no real harm.  But it does increase site traffic and is annoying for the moderators because the comments are usually out of context with other dialogue going on. It will also prevent some confusion over posts where people have found them using google, and thought they were current.

The other update is to put a experimental TinyMCE comment editor on the site. This can currently only be accessed by people who have registered and are logged in and have that grey mantle of authority. Users can turn it off in their profile if it causes problems. At present I have no plans to extend its use to people who aren’t logged in because they can’t turn it off if it causes problems with their browser configuration. It looks like this.

To turn it off, go into “Site Admin” in the top right, and then click on your login name in the top right again. Turning off the visual editing flag will turn off the javascript editor. However it may take a while to clear your local cache

The current limitations on the TinyMCE editor are that the BlockQuote doesn’t work (but I’m working on it), and it may have problems with browsers with strong popup controls. I’d have preferred to use NicEdit because it is smaller and closer to the site needs. However it doesn’t seem to want to store the formatting if you aren’t the the sysop ;)

Let me know of other issues here and I will see what I can do to correct them. In the meantime, I’ll clean up some of the other CSS issues like font size, removing the redundant tag message, and adding it to the reedit.

Another upgrade

Sysop

Sysop

Another upgrade complete. As per usual let me know if any problems (that I didn’t find in testing) show up. Please let me know here. If I don’t know about them then I can’t fix them.

The next upgrade will happen on the weekend. This is a new module designed to make bans more effective and easier for the moderators to operate without expending my time. That is good. At present it looks like the steady-state for the site loading looks like it will settle at about 3 weeks prior to election. Looks like I’ll need the time for the steady enhancements to reduce site loadings before the next election.

BTW: The wingnut emulation project looks pretty good at present. Hopefully I’ll get that tested before the xmas.

Lynn.

Minnows

I always love reading the 100 Word Blog. So few words and such a high degree of clarity. Richard has surpassed himself with this post. All I can say is ouch!, ask to reproduce it, and extend its readership. It is quoted below in full as per usual.

Minnow Party post election round up
While the Christian parties had 1996 to give them hope, most knew they had no chance.  While the Libertarianz and the Workers’ Party would be happy just to stand by their ideals, you have to wonder why the Alliance doesn’t just join Labour or the Greens or why the Marxists of RAM are so coy about their politics.

And then there’s the sheer embarrassment of the results. Having poured their efforts into Mangere, the Family Party gained only 856 votes.  RAM claims 3,000 members but the overwhelming majority didn’t vote for them, they only received 405 votes.

“NZ Herald Staff” dribble

Bomber over at Tumeke has pointed out a stupid news story about the blogosphere from the Granny Herald. It either shows a selective bias, or someone reporting on something that they don’t understand at more than a superficial level.

From the Herald staff…

The Blogosphere has made much of the “popular Westie” Paula Bennett’s new job in its initial analysis of John Key’s cabinet announced yesterday.

From bomber..

I love this ‘story’ by the Herald, they do a story about the ‘blogosphere’ reaction to Paula Bennett – to my shock they didn’t look at Tumeke…

…instead the Herald goes to the two most right wing blogs on the blogosphere, the Fox news online Kiwiblogh and the appalling whale oil…

Ok, so I thought that bomber was probably over-reacting. But no he isn’t, the blogs looked at were Colin Espiners blog, Kiwiblog (yeah - dog-whistles for the nat’s), and Whaleoil (aka national’s smear unit). The latter two are so associated with National that it is difficult to see them as anything more than sock-puppets for National PR. You’d have thought that a balanced report on the blogosphere reaction would have included some reaction from a range of blogs. Like the lefty or green blogs for instance - just for a bit of balance.

I don’t have time to read many blogs, but the reaction on most blogs has not that favourable about the cabinet lineup. We haven’t done explicit posts on the details of the micro-fauna of NACT + MP cabinet. However there is a lot of comment both in the posts and inside the comments. For instance a lot of the 100+ comments on this post were not exactly complimentary about the cabinet choices. Bomber of course did Paula Bennett – the perfect patsy which probably accurately sums up the reaction of the left to putting a first time minister in charge of the social welfare budget. There are certainly enough links to it.

But hey, the “NZ Herald Staff” probably read Kiwiblog and watch Fox news. Fed exclusively on a PR drip-feed, they probably consider that ill-considered knee-jerk reactions are ‘analysis’. More likely they’re too damn lazy to read below the headlines of posts of the blogosphere.

Personally, I’d suggest that people simply stop buying the Herald. It is becoming a rag with low value news content and the reporters are starting to look like they’re dribbling on their bibs.

More optimization

Sysop

Sysop

I’ve just put another round of optimizations into the system. In this case caching the p-code generated by php into shared memory This should usually result in faster page display where content is changing rapidly. Posts with fast growing comments should get the major benefit from this. This should allow the site to run on its existing hardware for quite a while without the trauma of hardware upgrades.

This should be the last of the back-end optimization updates. The next round of updates will concentrate more on usability.

Peak traffic

Sysop

Sysop

Some comments on Sunday about this site performing well induced me to have a look at the traffic over the last week. I was extremely surprised at how much load the system can now take without stalling. From the Wordpress blog stats, It turns out that the traffic for the week was 34.6% higher in page views compared to the week before. It was a staggering 61.9% higher than it was two weeks before. It makes me more confident about running the site at a technical level towards the 2011 (or earlier) election.

I’d love to take credit for this (and I will in part). However the reason people read the site is largely because of the content, both from our posters and our knowledgeable and informed commentators*. This is a completely voluntary site run on a very loose cooperative arrangement - it just shows what kind of talent is there to be tapped from the grass-roots. A special mention for Julie Fairey from The Hand Mirror for her election evening coverage who kept everyone coming back for more. Despite being offline for comments for 19 hours, it is still in our top ten days for traffic.

However that is just the visible portion of the site. We’re reliant on a number of technical supports.

Webfarm also deserves a strong mention. Their systems have been utterly reliable since I moved the site there in Feburary. Currently the site runs on virtual private server with 512MB of RAM running Fedora Linux with unlimited local traffic costing $159+GST per month.

However, my biggest kudo’s has to go to the open source people at Wordpress, Fedora project, K2 theme and the wordpress plugin authors without whom this system would have failed dramatically under the load. The site now runs without any code kludges apart from some css styles for the display. It is quite a different site from what was running last year and failing under load.

* Well almost all commentators - I specifically exclude the annoying, largely incoherent, and definitely anti-social trolls. To a man, they seem to mainly be act supporters** hyped on their badly self-assessed intelligence, in love with their own egos, and who take the credo of individualism to the point of being incapable of meaningful social interaction with others. It is the one area that I pity John Key in - he is going to have to deal with adult versions of these clowns. He also doesn’t have the “send to spam” button. However he has done well with an early ban.

** But not all act supporters are trolls

National Spinners

David Farrar wrote… “Funniest moment was talking to a few of John’s staff, and one of them asked whether their imminent transfer to the 9th floor meant they would get to take over The Standard. It was hilarious as they started fighting over who would be all-your-base and who would be Irish Bill etc”

Wow! That is really funny all right. These guys need to really learn what is spin and what is not. It looks as if they have come to believe the lies that WhaleOil tells about the site (and David spreads). I pay for the site. Our writers write on a voluntary basis outside of their work (which isn’t on the 9th floor). It is all in and always has been in our About. Either these fools are joking stupidly, or Key is employing credulous idiots. Either is a bit worrying in the staff advising the PM.

Well, I guess that we worried them as a channel that wasn’t susceptible to their charms. Guess what, they’re likely to get more worried over the next few years. I suspect that after everyone gets over their hangovers and campaigning exhaustion, that you will not like what they have to say. The Standard isn’t going away and nor are its posts and posters.

National - welcome to the era of cheap mass media. But of course you know that. Are Kiwiblog and WhaleOil now going to be run from the 9th floor after you move in, or from the National research unit as previously done?

The distances between parties

Just before the election They Work For You released some impressive work on the voting distances between parties based on:-

There are 110 final bill reading votes included in the analysis. All the votes are from the 48th New Zealand Parliament which was in term between 7 November 2005 and 3 October 2008.

The plot was created by a statistical analysis of bill votes, using a technique called principal components analysis. The two principal components plotted above explain 74.4% of the variance in the way parties voted on final bill readings.

The major variation in the chart shows with the effects of the agreements between Labour, Progressives, NZ First, and United Future. That distorted the positioning of those parties in that they tended to vote the same way. Without that distortion, it is likely that Labour would have voted a bit closer to the Greens. NZ First and United Future would have voted closer to National.

In the coalition forming period, this clearly illustrates the differences between the party groupings, and the problem faced by National. Ideally they would set up agreements that allowed them to seek support from other parties where Act was unwilling to follow. That would allow National to maintain its own policy position while still getting legislation through that Act objected to and was unable to vote for. Otherwise Act would wind up being the tail that shakes the dog, effectively driving the policy direction of National.

Act has to be able to maintain their own policy direction because otherwise they would find it difficult to maintain the independence from National, and would be likely to wither away as being perceived as being not independent or distinctive enough. There have been a number of examples of this since MMP was introduced.

The problem for National is that United Future has too few house votes to perform that function. Now that NZ First is no longer available largely because of Act’s actions, they have a very limited range of options. All of those options vote a long way from National, and would correspondingly probably require larger policy concessions in their areas.

It will make for an interesting few weeks while this is sorted out. I’d expect that there are going to be unhappy supporters of one or more parties in the eventual agreements at the end of it. I suspect that the unhappiness will be greatest amongst the National supporters.

hattip: No Right Turn

Damn close election. Now the coalition fun starts

Lynn Prentice

Lynn Prentice

That was incredibly close. National plus Act plus probably Peter Dunne have scraped a small majority.

How close is shown in the election results table.

59 (nat) + 5 (act) + 1 (dunne) = 65. Less one for the speaker is 64 in a parliament of 122. That would mean that they have extra seats in hand for passing legislation after they get a majority. But because the number of seats are limited, it looks like a ‘waka’ jumping paradise because every MP is important. This feels to me like the scenario like the National/NZF coalition of the 1990’s.

The question is if a newbie politician has the skills required to maintain a coalition. Imagine if they do anything that Act objects to and will vote against. That is a hamstrung coalition because National would have to seek external support. Of course they can seek support outside of those two support parties, but there aren’t that many parties that they could work with on the ‘left’. Helen at least had parties within working distance on both the ‘left’ and the ‘right’ of themselves.

It should make for an ‘interesting’ coalition agreement because Act has their own agenda. It will be a case of the “tail wagging the dog” as various right commentators have described this type of coalition. But without a alternative partner on particular legislation as Helen managed to do.

It is no wonder that the National politicians are trying to hammer the message of people moving in the same direction - they need the help. It is going to be quite amusing watching the National politicians contorting themselves to inoculate themselves against the dead embrace of Act. They need another party with enough votes to work with on the left of them - there really isn’t one that they can easily work with.

In the meantime it is time for the ‘left’ to start working on being the most effective opposition (in their unique ways) that they can be. I’ll probably blog on Helen standing down tommorrow after I get over the shock.

[Update: The speaker does get a vote.]

Contrast the ways of ‘democracy’

How not to vote (BBC)

How not to vote (BBC)

How not to vote (Economist)

How not to vote (Economist)

I’m happy to say that when I crawled out of my sickbed and voted this morning, it was nothing like the photos on the top and left.

I gather that we had queues at some of the major booths later in the day - Edendale primary (my old school) in Mt Albert for instance. However the contrast between the “democracy” displayed in these photo’s of the US and what we had today in NZ was immense. As No Right Turn pointed out the underfunded electoral system in the USA seems to be designed to disenfranchise voters.

So what’s wrong with this picture? Simply that it shouldn’t exist. The idea that people would have to queue for more than five minutes to vote in any advanced western democracy is absurd. The idea that they would be queuing out the door, for hours to do so is positively third-world. It speaks of an election apparatus so hideously underresourced that is simply not fit for purpose - unless the purpose is to stop people from voting rather than enable it.

Compared to the couple of minutes to do my vote today, the system in the self-professed democratic USA is strange. I’m just glad that we have a better funded and capable electoral commission out there. Thanks for your efforts leading up to this election.

Oh and the comments are now enabled.

Guest Post: QoT - Mmm, delicious linear time

I loved this post for QoT so much that I asked to reproduce it in full here. It resonated with me after reading the comment stream today. So, from Ideologically Impure, an observation on the patently ridiculous… Lynn

Ideologically Impure

Ideologically Impure

This comment over at The Standard cites one of my favourite (or, really, least-favourite) bits of political bullshit often parroted in this country (and sorry, Standardites, it ain’t the one about y’all being a Machiavellian Secret Labour Party Front, that’s just lol-tastic).

It’s the, “Well you’ve had nine years to do suchandsuch, and you haven’t!” line, which gets brought up, almost invariably, any time the Labour Party have announced a radical new (and, let’s face it, vote-attracting) policy. Like universal student allowances, or tax cuts (and GOD did we hear it constantly when Cullen finally rolled them out).

And it’s always pissed me off, but I had a hard time explaining exactly why. Last week? Lightning bolt!

The National Party is the nation’s teenaged son, who threw a huge party in the 90s. Mummy Labour and associate minor-party aunties have spent 9 years cleaning up the broken bottles, half-full cans of Woodstock, getting the vomit out of the bathtub and apologising to Council workers for the illegal bonfire, while National sits back and says “JEEZ, MUM, you haven’t even vacuumed the carpet, what the hell have you been DOING all this time? God, it’s shocking how lazy you are. I’m sick of the way things are around here. It’s time for ANOTHER PARTY.”

The more I think about it, the clearer it gets. The friends little Nat wants to invite are the same wankers who got thrown out last time for being lying little shits. Like a sulky teenager, when confronted by the fact that he and his buddies have been caught smoking behind the bike sheds, he just mutters that it’s not fair that somebody narked.

Have Labour led perfect Governments for the past nine years? Fuck no. Have they achieved everything they may have wanted to achieve, or that their supporters might have wanted them to achieve? Probably not. But, and stop me if I’m sounding a bit too Emissary here, the Labour Party, like the rest of us, only have so many hours in the day and so many sessions in the House, and they’ve got a shitload of policy through (love it or hate it).

Criticising them for announcing policies now by saying, “Why didn’t you do that while you were busy doing a lot of other stuff, some of which was probably necessary to lead up to this, or was a higher priority*, huh? HUH?” is just ridiculous.

Mind you, what’s new?

*Take the aforementioned student allowances. Am I pissed that I’ll never benefit from them, after years of borrowing for living costs? Yes. But fuck me would I be a lot more pissed if I’d been given $150 a week and still slapped with compound fucking interest while studying full-time.

Polling Biases

Poll biases

Biases in the party support polls by indiviudal polling company. Companies whoose name is marked with an asterisk show a statistically significant bias towards either Labour or National at the 95% level (ie the absolute bias in one party is significantly greater (or less) than the other). Bias is defined in absolute terms as the (p-s), where p is the value estimated by the individual poll, and s is the mean value estimated using the Loess smoother taking into account all polls. No polls show significant deviations from zero at the 95% level.

This is from the discussion area of the wikipedia page on opinion polls. It is an analysis of biases between the polling companies by trewa. I know how much our own commentators are interested in the biases of different polls, so this will give some kind of basis for comparison.

Personally I think that land-line based polling as being pretty worthless these days. In my opinion, having a listed (in the white pages) land-line is a characteristic of being older, more technophobic, and being of higher incomes - characteristics of a more conservative voter.

Poll Trends - National is soft

Polling trends

Polling trends

Rather than argue about individual polls, it is more interesting to look at the overall trends. A number of people have put an excellent summary of the polls up on wikipedia.

What is noticeable to me about this chart is that the National support looks very soft. Coming up towards an election with the less committed people making decisions, they are polling downwards. The recent polls are jumping all over the place, but National has a much higher rogue factor downwards.

Great work from the people doing this summary.

hat-tip: outofbed

Drinking Liberally - Auckland

Drinking Liberally - AucklandWHAT: Drinking Liberally Auckland City

WHO: You and any of your left-leaning comrades

WHEN: 7.30pm, Wed 22nd October

WHERE: London Bar, cnr Wellesley & Queen Sts (opposite Civic). The entrance to the bar is around on Wellesley St, you need to go up the stairs.

WITH: Dr Russell Norman - co-leader of the Greens.

COST: Free, just need to keep yourself fed and watered.

Maintenance

Lynn Prentice

Sysop

There will be some scheduled maintenance at the hosting company tonight between 10pm and 6am. During that period the site may be offline for some short periods.

So if you cannot get the site for a period, then just try again a little time later.

Yet another record breaking day at The Standard yesterday. We keep breaking our own records for numbers of page views and numbers of visitors. The site does seem to be be running better during the peaks since the database tweaking.

Authorised for the Right…..

Mike Smith - Authorised!

Mike Smith - Authorised!

From the campaign launch, I got this photo, and decided that I’d put it up for the skulkers complaining about the EFA. For some reason they were conspicuous by their absence (didn’t want to tangle with 1600+ activists?).

For the EFA fetishists, please note that Mike is authorising himself. I didn’t sneak around to get the address details. But hopefully this will allay the fears on the right that Mike Smith is truly authorised.

For the legalists, of course there is no need for his address details. This tee-shirt does not advocate for or against any party. However I intend to start wearing one specifically to annoy the skulkers.

If anyone wants to get authorised as well, then contact jenniferann.z@gmail.com (proceeds to North Shore Labour Youth).

[update: Added the crucial 'not'. See what happens typing on a delicately poised laptop on top of the tee-shirts]

Labour - too popular

Labour campaign launch overflow 2008

Labour campaign launch overflow 2008

Labour is too damn popular! I’m at the campaign launch and the place is full. There are a couple of hundred of us hanging around in the lounges looking at the televisions - metres away from the hall. The Auckland town hall is overflowing with activists.

I’ve been at a large number of these launches over the decades. This is the first time I haven’t had to cram into a tight seat and do the elbow knocking with your neighbours. It looks to me like all of the ticket holders have turned up.

That is a lot of activists. I’m starting to pity the Nat’s…

update: Easier watching on the net in the next post down… TV’s are too hard to see

Upgrades - Grumpy post area

Lynn Prentice

I’ve brought the site up to date. All the various hacks that I put in this years have now been removed as the software and plugins have now been upgraded.

The main area of difference is in the re-edit, which is no longer in-line. I’m still tweaking that in places for look and feel. I’ve very interested if this gets rid of the problems that people have been having with the older version recently. There was one bug in it that I sent the bug and fix to the author.

Let me know of issues you’d like addressed in the current look and feel, and any bugs.Currently the only known bug is the missing caption graphic (working on it).

I’ll be doing some more of the wish-list stuff later, but it is unlikely to get into place before the election. I have tweaked the database parameters to give better performance when the system goes under HEAVY load, as happened twice last week.

There will be a server upgrade on the 16th of October about midday. I’ll remind people closer to the date.

Lynn

We’re popular - but with the wrong people

Lynn PrenticeAfter a lot of work both by a few e-mails from people here and by the good services of some people on nz.comp (google seems to be a little behind on the messages) I finally found the link to the malware site that was attached itself to the site footer.

The material that it was trying to introduce to people reading the site may include various forms of backdoors. It would be adviseable to run a good virus scan on your system if you have read the site in the last couple of weeks. Corporate systems shouldn’t have had an issue because the site it was linking to has been a well known chinese malware site for a long time.

The anti-virus/malware scans missed it at the server because it was a new variant of an old problem (the same one I had in march), targeted specifically at wordpress sites using what is evidently is still a open vunerability. My own checking of the site missed it because it had managed to leave all of the file attributes of the file (size, times, etc) exactly the same as the origionals. My attempts to see what people were reporting had failed because it only emitted the malware link out periodically. A dump of the web page at the client side by Stephen Worthington allowed me to see exactly what it was doing.

The vunerability it was exploiting was meant to have been fixed in wordpress 2.5, however they seem to have found another vunerability. The downside of having open source software is that it is possible to read the code looking for holes. I’ve done some things to reduce possible problems, but I now have MD5 hash check of the files running periodically which will fix the problem if it happens again. I’ve also reported the details to wordpress and a couple of other sites.

But there are some very creative people out there writing this stuff, and evidently this site is popular with them.

Lynn