There really are some talented people out there. great vid. someone better email it to Tracy Watkins et al, otherwise they won’t see it… this interweb thing is beyond some of them.
These are the seven graphs that should make you ask: What? Has global warming now stopped?
Look for yourself. They show that the world hasn’t warmed for a decade, and has even cooled for several years.
Sea ice now isn’t melting, but spreading. The seas have not just stopped rising, but started to fall.
Nor is the weather getting wilder. Cyclones, as well as tornadoes and hurricanes, aren’t increasing and the rain in Australia hasn’t stopped falling.
What’s more, the slight warming we saw over the century until 1998 still makes the world no hotter today than it was 1000 years ago.
In fact, it’s even a bit cooler. So, dude, where’s my global warming?
the nats will never respond to environmental issues because they are the party of the short term. maximising profits and to hell with anything else. I want my home in the south of france, a pied a terre in London, matching his and hers bentleys and enough money in th ebank to go and terrify the bank manager by threatening to move it elsewhere. anything else is a figment of fevered imagination…now where did I put my chainsaw?
It’s actually possible to argue that National has come a long way on climate change. It was only three years ago that party leader John Key labelled Kyoto a hoax and called the whole idea of climate change into question. “… The impact of the Kyoto Protocol, even if one believes in global warming—and I am somewhat suspicious of it—is that we will see billions and billions of dollars poured into fixing something that we are not even sure is a problem. ” (2005). (Not sure it’s a problem? Christ, what was he waiting for zero summer ice in the Arctic; longer droughts; another hottest year on record; another wiped out species?) The leadership has since cottoned on to the fact that New Zealanders will no longer tolerate this stance. However, the party’s environment and energy policies are a major step backward. They suggest National is living in an alternate reality in which there’s no such thing as climate change. The policies fail to acknowledge that climate change even exists, let alone recognise it for the crisis it is. Not that we would have expected much more from “sexy coal’ Brownlee (http://brownlee.co.nz/index.php?/archives/41-Video-Newsletter-5.html_). If Gerry thinks coal is sexy, I dread to think how he behaves around Huntly, or Solid Energy for that matter. On that note, last year Greenpeace also found some heads in sand: http://weblog.greenpeace.org.nz/climate-change/day-dreaming-heads-in-the-sand/#img
As I said, there is NO consensus. The world isn’t even heating up anymore. The world is NOT going to end and you Warm-mongers should stop scaring the children.
Ahh G, haven’t seen you about since cynic gave you such an awful thumping. Glad to see you survived after all.
Now, some of the graphs in the articles you cite are irrelevant, and some of them are too short to show the trends. You need to read the basics, where such arguments are refuted:
Re ice and melting, Arctic ice has retreated so much that new shipping lanes have opened up, and there are looming international debates over newly accessible mineral, oil and fishing rights:
As well as Arctic (and Antarctic) ice melt, glaciers (one of the most sensitive indicators of global warming) are receding world wide – see dramatic images here:
Yes, cause and effect are difficult to prove conclusively, but the overwhelming body of scientific evidence is now agreed by the overwhelming majority of scientists:
On Feb. 2, 2007, the United Nations scientific panel studying climate change declared that the evidence of a warming trend is “unequivocal,’ and that human activity has “very likely’ been the driving force in that change over the last 50 years. The last report by the group, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in 2001, had found that humanity had “likely’ played a role.
The addition of that single word “very’ did more than reflect mounting scientific evidence that the release of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases from smokestacks, tailpipes and burning forests has played a central role in raising the average surface temperature of the earth by more than 1 degree Fahrenheit since 1900. It also added new momentum to a debate that now seems centered less over whether humans are warming the planet, but instead over what to do about it.
Governments all over the world (and many individual states in America) are taking action to combat climate change. Either they are all fools G, or you are.
This, of course, includes the very inconvenient truth that the DVD is still being released with its cornerstone ‘fact’, the Hockey Stick, which the IPCC has conceded is bent and subsequently dropped from their reports.
And now the founder of the Weather Channel is gathering 30,000 scientists to sue Al Gore to finally precipitate a debate on the subject. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfHW7KR33IQ
But singularly the biggest nail in the warmist’s hoax is the fact that all their ‘bias in/bias out’ computer models are failing one-by-one to prove accurate as the Earth inevitably contradicts their predictions:
Have you noticed the Earth has cooled over the last few years with record lows recorded worldwide? Remember the silly bitches who made a trek to the North Pole to raise warming awareness only to be pulled out in a rescue mission and have most of their digits amputated from frostbite?
Seriously, Rob, you’re all starting to look foolish. 🙂
[G. This is a site for intelligent debate. Climate change denialism doesn’t fit meet that criterion, it hasn’t done so for the last 20 years at least. If you want to make silly arguments, go to Kiwiblog, you’ll have plenty of company. SP]
[lprent: If you’re going to attempt to argue, then at least learn something about the topic. I’m tired of the fatuous fools like you who seem to think that the earth’s hydrosphere and atmosphere operate like a classic black-body. If you don’t know what I’lm talking about then I suggest you try some elementary physics. You should also have a look at the current sizes of the artic sea ice during summer compared to historical values, and the increase in speed of the west antartic (?sp) glaciers. Then contemplate what an increasing flow of cold water due to melting does to the temperate zones where the currents flow to.
In the meantime don’t bother with fatuous arguments and links to publicity stunts.
I think that there should be more compulsary science – and people aren’t allowed to leave school until they’re passed some level of competence. ]
There is a growing stack of evidence to the contrary: starting with the fact that man-made CO2 contributes a gnat-sized 0.0054% of greenhouse gases (oh yeah, that’ll be the tipping point *phht*), the fact that CO2 levels lag temps by 200 years, the fact that the IPCC concedes it can’t explain why there was a spike in temps during the first 50 years of the 20th century, the fact that Earth’s temp tracks Sun Spot activity (who woulda thought, eh ~ it’s the Sun that controls our warming!), the fact that global temps have plateaued since 1998 despite CO2 continuing its climb, and the fact that more than 30,000 scientists now contradict anthropological global warming altogether… but carry on with your consensus cartoon if you wish. It’s your blog; it’s entirely your prerogative.
Just don’t tell us you’re looking for any debate because that’s a lie:
SP: “This is a site for intelligent debate. Climate change denialism doesn’t fit meet that criterion…”
Some brief points on your evident lack of education.
If you were correct about insolation effects, then the 11 year sunspot cycle would manifest in temps as a direct ratio of insolation energies. It doesn’t because those effects are buffered, largely by water and atmosphere.
There is an influence from solar and that will affect gross temps – but it is a long cycle. eg the long cycle warming from the 13th (eg greenland settlement) to 17th century (when the thames froze) to the warm period at the start of the 20th. Although I’d tend to ascribe a high proportion of the latter spike to CO2 and other gases generated from some of the large volcano’s in the late 19th century.
We are definitely on the peak (or just past it) of one of those cycles, but it is insufficent to explain the temp effects measured since geophysical year in 1957.
BTW: Before you raise that press driven fear of an iceage in the 1970’s, I’d point out that was a local effect in the major industrialised areas due to dust. It did not manifest in readings worldwide. Boy, I get tired of idiots raising those press reports.
The basic fact is that CO2 levels have risen dramatically. While it has a lower effect as a greenhouse gas than other gases, it is far an away the largest by volume which makes up for its limited entropic effect.
This article will give you the link to the current NOAA figures on CO2.
Scientists at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii say that CO2 levels in the atmosphere now stand at 387 parts per million (ppm), up almost 40% since the industrial revolution and the highest for at least the last 650,000 years.
The annual mean growth rate for 2007 was 2.14ppm the fourth year in the past six to see an annual rise greater than 2ppm. From 1970 to 2000, the concentration rose by about 1.5ppm each year, but since 2000 the annual rise has leapt to an average 2.1ppm.
That probably means that the buffering action for CO2 (mainly in the oceans from the recent acidity measurements) is starting to get less effective. That is bad news, and when the IPCC finally factors that in then you can expect their estimates of timelines to shorten massively. It means that they have been over estimating buffering
Frankly if you could find say 200 working earth or climate scientists who disagree with climate change, then I’d be far more interested than having 30k random ‘scientists’ like metrologists, chemists, etc. If you haven’t dug extensively into paleoclimatology in depth, most scientists ideas are about as useless as yours are. Their timelines are too short.
Suffice it to say I like debate on climate change. I just don’t like idiots debating. It really doesn’t matter if it is Al Gore or you or your 30k scientists. If they don’t understand enough about results from the icecores, O16/O18 isotope ratios, fossil tree rings, etc then it is rather pointless.
I’d point out at this point that I did study climate change extensively in my first degree for 3 years. I’ve been reading the papers on it for about 30 years.
G. In other words you don’t know and are just pulling what other people say without understanding it. Educate yourself. Read the NOAA report.
Scientists at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii say that CO2 levels in the atmosphere now stand at 387 parts per million (ppm), up almost 40% since the industrial revolution and the highest for at least the last 650,000 years.
This is AFTER the majority of the CO2 has been adsorbed in buffers.
What half-arsed report from some lame-arse are you picking that number from? Or is this just some figure you’re picking out of the air. Or are you considering that fossilised carbon being released is ‘natural’.
You could also consider the evidence from the carbon isotope ratio’s in atmospheric carbon. There is a pretty clear trace back to fossilised carbon being burnt.
According to Wiki as of November 2007, the CO2 concentration in Earth’s atmosphere was about 0.0384% (which is even less than other reports I’ve read). Even if man was responsible for as much as 10% of the Earth’s CO2, his contribution to the atmospheric gases would be less than 0.004%.
Not all gasses are greenhouse gasses you ninny. CO2 is a small percentage of all gasses, and a large percentage of greenhouse gasses. From later in the Wiki that you linked to:
Increased amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere enhance the greenhouse effect. It is currently the majority scientific opinion that carbon dioxide emissions are the main cause of global warming observed since the mid-20th century.
Should we get rid of all the Oxygen in the air? It’s only about 20% of the atmosphere – who’s going to miss it?
A gnat on an elephant’s arse
The only arse here is the one you have your head up.
I can’t be bothered to look it up. Small. But small changes can have large consequences in complex systems (eg with multiple feedback loops and buffering – Earth’s ecology). You like Wikipedia, go look up “Butterfly effect”. Or ponder the consequence of adding just a tiny bit of arsenic to a nice big meal.
Read the damn scientific literature critically, not just looking for factoids that support your point of view. There’s heaps of it linked above G – have you read any? Or even just take the word of the Wiki piece that you linked to, as quoted above.
The abundance of methane in the Earth’s atmosphere in 1998 was 1745 parts per billion, up from 700 ppb in 1750. In the same time period, CO2 increased from 278 to 365 parts per million. The radiative forcing effect due to this increase in methane abundance is about one-third of that of the CO2 increase
(please note the word billion rather than million there..)
PFC’s
PFCs are extremely potent greenhouse gases, and they are a long-term problem with a lifetime up to 50,000 years (PMID 14572085). In a 2003 study, the most abundant atmospheric PFC was tetrafluoromethane (PMID 14572085). The greenhouse warming potential (GWP) of tetrafluoromethane is 6,500 times that of carbon dioxide, and the GWP of hexafluoroethane is 9,200 times that of carbon dioxide.[24] Several governments concerned about the properties of PFCs have already tried to implement international agreements to limit their usage before it becomes a global warming issue. PFCs are one of the classes of compounds regulated in the Kyoto Protocol.
(note that there are no natural sources of PFC’s)
Nitrous Oxide
Nitrous oxide is a major greenhouse gas. Considered over a 100 year period, it has 298 times more impact per unit weight than carbon dioxide. Thus, despite its low concentration, nitrous oxide is the fourth largest contributor to these greenhouse gases.
Now water vapour is the biggest scattering agent – over 95%. However it is essentially reactive to temp’s. Look at the dewpoint at different temp’s. Higher temp’s allow higher humidity and therefore higher heat retention.
Water vapor is also a potent greenhouse gas. Because the water vapor content of the atmosphere is expected to greatly increase in response to warmer temperatures, there is the potential for a water vapor feedback that could amplify the expected climate warming effect due to increased carbon dioxide alone. However, it is less clear how cloudiness would respond to a warming climate; depending on the nature of the response, clouds could either further amplify or partly mitigate the water vapor feedback.
So despite the other greenhouse gases being less than water vapour for greenhouse effects, it is less of a problem than the other gases. Increasing the amount of water vapor will simply cause rain/dew/etc. However raising the temp will increase the saturation level of water in the atmosphere. A small increase in overall temp due to man made gases can cause a MAJOR amplification due to its effects on water vapour. Adding even small amounts of something like PFC’s causes a ‘natural’ system to amplify it’s effect.
Presumably there will be a top off effect at some point. However I’m not sure that human agricultural and cultural patterns can withstand the changes.
Essentially you are right about volumes, and utterly wrong as to the level of effect that small changes will cause.
Think of petrol being added to an engine. It is a very small amount, but causes a lot of effect when ignited.
… thanks for that exhaustive explanation, Iprent. Still, I don’t see anywhere on those links, not anywhere here a definitive percentage attributed to the anthropogenic gases. As far as I’m aware it’s miniscule, and it’s hubris to think man’s fart in the global jet stream will have ANY effect whatsoever on the 99.99% of other gases which contribute to the greenhouse effect.
If we indeed had a consensus on this – a lie Al Gore & Co. keep perpetuating – then I might have cause for concern, but we most certainly do not. The list of sceptics which include climatologists, geologists, metrologists, chemists, environmentalists (including the founder of Greenpeace), environmental journalists, media outlets, and heads of state are growing by the day.
But the best news of all (that the world isn’t actually coming to an end) is the fact that world isn’t actually coming to an end: every single bias in/bias out computer model has missed their alarmist timetable! It’s not so much the scientists which are calling this theory a load of bullshit – it’s the Earth!
G, I understand the difficulty in accepting that our CO2 release will have a tangible effect, given that a volcanic eruption can account for, say, the US’ output for a year, easily.
One thing to consider is the fragility of the system – don’t think of it as fixed, or a constant. Changes in the past have had a huge effect on the world’s climate. If a volcanic eruption can cool the planet, why can’t we?
The other way I think of it is that there is a natural system, and it was in pretty good balance. Our impact, over two centuries, has injected a massive amount of CO2 into the atmoshpere. Two salient points – the time scale is tiny – a huge change in a comparitively small time, even if the overall percentage isn’t changing too much.
The other point is that we’ve interrupted the natural carbon cycle. Greenhouse gasses are emitted naturally, say, by gasses bubling to the surface, & geothermal activity. That’s after millions of years in a deep cycle (carbon based life forms get buried, turn into fossil fuels over a long period, and return to the surface to decompose, to put it simply). We’ve dug and drilled the stuff out, and put into the atmosphere what would have taken millions of years to occur naturally.
We need a specific set of conditions to thrive – a very specific set of conditions. It’s not impossible that we’re upsetting those conditions.
And on the brighter side, climate change got people off a court charge. Fantastic.
Yes, I was going to get to the volcano dilemma, which goes to prove just how resilient the planet really is. It really doesn’t matter what we throw at it, the power of nature is greater than us all!
Here’s one of my favourite debunkers with a poetic rave on that very subject:
Of course the whole CO2 debate is predicated on CO2 actually having an effect on temperature, when in fact there is evidence to suggest the latter precedes the former by as much as 300 years.
And then there’s this:
If greenhouse warming were presently occurring you would get more warming in the troposphere, because greenhouse gases trap heat from escaping the atmosphere in the troposphere. However, that is just not the case. The data collected from satellites and weather balloons show that the earth is in fact warmer than the atmosphere. This evidence damns the theory of greenhouse effect upon climate through CO2.
It really doesn’t matter what we throw at it, the power of nature is greater than us all!
Don’t be a dickhead. The last time that volcanic eruptions probably sent out the volume of CO2 etc for a duration that we’re emitting was probably the Deccan Flats about 65M years ago.
Most volcanic events that affect the climate are rhyolitic or andesectic (?sp) events. But they are of short duration usually only running for a few years. The basaltic eruptions run for longer but (by comparison) do not do much out-gassing. The gases tend to get bound up far more strongly into the rock structure because of mantle temps and pressures.
Consequently the buffering that has been sucking up our emissions of CO2 mops up those easily. It is relatively easy to see over the recent geological history in carbon isotope levels.
What we’re doing is having a sustained and increasing release of greenhouse gases. Consequently we’re effectively running a vast experiment on the earths buffering systems. If you’d actually read the NOAA data, they’re showing the the buffers are running out of buffer space.
So basically your analogy of looking at volcanic buffering is fundementally flawed because it is geologically rare to have a continuous stream of volcano’s going off in sequence and massively in paradel (?sp) for 50+ years.
Of course the whole CO2 debate is predicated on CO2 actually having an effect on temperature, when in fact there is evidence to suggest the latter precedes the former by as much as 300 years.
Yes correct. BUT where there is a normal gradual rise in CO2 levels, and typically when there is significant glaciation. What you have to remember is that far less then a third of the CO2 emmissions is showing in the atmosphere. The rest is being buffered.
However you’re arguing from a different circumstance. Occassional volcanic events don’t stress the buffering as much. The 300 year lag is most likely from the CO2 going into the cold current water at the poles and then getting released hundreds of years later. There are a number of other possibilities like calcium carbonates etc, but they all act as a sink with eventual release.
But you should (for the 3rd time) read the NOAA numbers. It is showing that buffering is accepting about half the CO2 as it did 10 years ago. Moreover the emmissions are still rising. What that means is that it it is likely to showing strongly in your lifetime if you’re younger than I am. I think that we’ll see significant effects within the next 30 years.
If greenhouse warming were presently occurring you would get more warming in the troposphere, because greenhouse gases trap heat from escaping the atmosphere in the troposphere.
Read Draco’s links. The people whose work you’re basing that claim on have a few wee problems with their methodology.
How about reading enough to make it worth while discussing it with you…
Championing those graphs that the polar bear was teaching you about does your credibility no good at all. “ooh, look, the sea ice went up last year after falling for ages, that’s a trend!”
“If greenhouse warming were presently occurring you would get more warming in the troposphere, because greenhouse gases trap heat from escaping the atmosphere in the troposphere. However, that is just not the case. The data collected from satellites and weather balloons show that the earth is in fact warmer than the atmosphere. This evidence damns the theory of greenhouse effect upon climate through CO2.”
That is completely retarded. Of course the earth is warmer than the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases don’t absorb infrared radiation, they reflect it. It doesn’t get “trapped it the troposphere”. Arguing that CO2 does not have a significant impact on global temperature isn’t “skepticism”, it’s “retardacism”. It is a proven fact, it’s not up for debate. The debate is over “how much” and “what caused it”.
As for your obvious lack of faith in models – I can only assume you’ve had very little experience with them. Models are, generally, not that good at predicting the very near future accurately. There are too many little difficult to model bits that mess things around. They can still be quite good in the long term.
Take flipping a coin. You could have a model of a fair coin, and it would only be 50% accurate in telling you whether the coin was going to land heads or tails. Flip the coin 1000 times though and you’ll find that your model is pretty damned good at telling you whether the number of heads will be between 480 and 520.
Good on you for reading around, but read around BOTH sides of the argument, don’t just look at the skeptics views.
It might interest you to know that in the IPCC’s reports they are required to consider ALL opposing submissions, and in those cases that they chose to ignore them they have to say why, and on what evidence. It’s not some bunch of global warming alarmist hacks.
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Also, since you keep on ridiculing the possibility that small concentrations can have big effects – look up the ozone hole causes and results. How many CFC’s do you think were up there?
Finally, and in closing, as I’ve said many times before: It doesn’t matter whether CO2 is causing global warming. CO2 intensive technologies are crap for thousands of other reasons anyway, so we should move to abandon them regardless. Do you have any idea how many of the proposed emissions reductions schemes have been shown to have a significant net economic benefit? Net, in this instance, means “economic benefit for most people, just not coal power companies”.
… and still no answer! Iprent, Rob, Matthew, Draco and now T-Rex — do none of you ‘experts’ know what percentage of the greenhouse gases can be attributed to mankind? Or is it that our contribution is so flipping small you’re all too embarrassed to admit to it?
T-Rex: “Arguing that CO2 does not have a significant impact on global temperature isn’t “skepticism’, it’s “retardacism’. It is a proven fact, it’s not up for debate.”
Is that right, Mr Rex? Then how do you explain the debate ensuing over the 1.5 million hits on Google for the search “CO2 does not cause global warming”?
As for short-term charting, you’re right — the period of industrialisation in modern history is indeed just a blip in the Earth’s lifespan. Let’s have a look at what eminent marine geologist and climatologist Professor Robert Carter has to say about that:
In this succinct lecture he demonstrates that over the last 3.5 million years, the last 400,000 years, the last 10,000 years, the last 2,000 years and the last 700 years the Earth has been cooling! The spike of the latest period of the current holocene period is, wait for it, NORMAL in both rate and change!! In fact the rate of change in the last century is actually relatively slow compared to the Ice Age when there was a 1 degree shift per decade!
In the other two parts he uses empirical science to torpedo some of the really big floaters in the warm-monger’s argument:
Part Three (This part is particularly good; at the end of it we see sun spot activity laid over the global temp – almost a perfect match. Coincidence? I don’t think so). Part Four (You’ll love this part: “NOAA’s National Climate Data Center is in the middle of a scandal. Their global observing network, the heart and soul of surface weather measurement, is a disaster. Urbanization has placed many sites in unsuitable locations — on hot black asphalt, next to trash burn barrels, beside heat exhaust vents, even attached to hot chimneys and above outdoor grills.” – and he has photos to prove it!)
Phew. Nothing like a good night sleep knowing the sky isn’t falling. 🙂
[P.S. I’ve seen Al Snore’s alarmist doco… have you guys bothered to watch the counter-argumentative docos? The Great Global Warming Swindle is one you should all watch. The latest version, which – unlike The Inconvenient Truth – has the integrity to have been re-released with its original inaccuracies corrected.]
G said:(This part is particularly good; at the end of it we see sun spot activity laid over the global temp – almost a perfect match. Coincidence? I don’t think so).
The film’s main contention is that the current increase in global temperatures is caused not by rising greenhouse gases, but by changes in the activity of the sun. It is built around the discovery in 1991 by the Danish atmospheric physicist Dr Eigil Friis-Christensen that recent temperature variations on Earth are in “strikingly good agreement” with the length of the cycle of sunspots.
Unfortunately, he found nothing of the kind. A paper published in the journal Eos in 2004 reveals that the “agreement” was the result of “incorrect handling of the physical data”. The real data for recent years show the opposite: that the length of the sunspot cycle has declined, while temperatures have risen. When this error was exposed, Friis-Christensen and his co-author published a new paper, purporting to produce similar results. But this too turned out to be an artefact of mistakes – in this case in their arithmetic.
G said:The Great Global Warming Swindle is one you should all watch.
The problem with The Great Global Warming Swindle, which caused a sensation when it was broadcast on Channel 4 last week, is that to make its case it relies not on future visionaries, but on people whose findings have already been proved wrong.
If they’ve removed all the inaccuracies then can’t possibly have released anything.
He is, ironically, adopting pretty much the same mentality as the “WTC1 & WTC2 were bought down by controlled demolition” crowd.
G, I’ll reply to you later if I am sufficiently drunk and accommodating. Probably I won’t bother, because I get really really bored of refuting the arguments of crap science.
Such as this one: “Is that right, Mr Rex? Then how do you explain the debate ensuing over the 1.5 million hits on Google for the search “CO2 does not cause global warming’?”
Yes, that’s right. And it’s SIR Mr Rex to you. I think it’s great that 1.5 million people are researching the issue, although I hope their research is a little more balanced than yours. However, research is not the same as belief (at least it shouldn’t be), and even if it was all it would prove is that 1.5million people can’t grasp basic science. CO2 IS a greenhouse gas – anyone who argues otherwise is wrong. It MAY not be resulting in abnormal and significant warming of our planet at PRESENT levels (though I’d love to know why the icecap is melting if not), but it’s sure as hell a greenhouse gas. If you don’t believe me, check out the weather on Venus. Or you think that’s just because it’s closer to the sun?
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Has anyone read any analysis of the stabilisation effect of the icecap? I mean the phase change from ice to water consumes enourmous energy – I’d expect that to stabilise the temperature.
Think about it G – where is all the energy that’s melting the ice coming from?
Natural cycle or not, it’ll still f*ck us if we don’t prepare for it. You think the ice age/desertification will care whether they were caused by people or not? Answer is robust system. Fossil fuel dependency is anything but robust.
1) Still no answer on the definitive percentage of AGW gases.
2) I’ve not said CO2 isn’t a greenhouse gas; I’m saying Man’s contribution to it is negligible to the point of insignificance, and it may be that CO2 isn’t even the key contributer to GW.
3) You said the debate on that subject was over when it is clearly not.
4) Your precious NOAA is riddled with crap science, not Carter’s charts — nobody here or in the science community is refuting their validity.
5) Given today is 9/11, your allusion to me being a WTC conspiracy theorist is not only mean spirited, it’s actually quite distasteful.
6) As Carter observed, once again the warm-mongers inevitably resort to attacking the man.
As least one of us isn’t losing any sleep over this. 🙂
“The Earth’s atmosphere is a layer of gases surrounding the planet Earth that is retained by the Earth’s gravity. It contains roughly (by molar content/volume) 78.08% nitrogen, 20.95% oxygen, 0.93% argon, 0.038% carbon dioxide, trace amounts of other gases, and a variable amount (average around 1%) of water vapor. This mixture of gases is commonly known as air. The atmosphere protects life on Earth by absorbing ultraviolet solar radiation and reducing temperature extremes between day and night.”
So, the % of AGW gases in the atmosphere is, approximately, “sod all”, but as I mentioned earlier the absolute concentration considered alone is basically irrelevant. Notice you’ve totally failed to address your arguments flaws in light of the Ozone issue btw.
The reason nobody is responding is not because they’re embarassed, it’s because it’s commonly available knowledge already exhaustively considered and they can’t be bothered. You’re not deciphering the rosetta stone here, you’re just applying crap arguments.
You said this: “Is that right, Mr Rex? Then how do you explain the debate ensuing over the 1.5 million hits on Google for the search “CO2 does not cause global warming’?”, a statement clearly trying to discredit assertions that CO2 causes global warming. The debate is NOT over, but only because people who don’t know what they’re talking about keep on debating it. If CO2 is a greenhouse gas then it causes global warming. You ADMIT it’s a greenhouse gas, therefore you’re admitting it causes global warming. So any reference to google searches along the lines of “CO2 does not cause global warming” is just, at the cost of repeating myself, retarded. Negligible – maybe – I haven’t got a model of the climate available so I can’t tell you, but the fact that some very well informed people who DO think it’s not negligible holds some significance.
My precious NOAA? I haven’t even referenced them yet – though interestingly your friend Carter did. And I’m not saying the data is invalid, I’m saying that it’s poorly applied in this context. Look at his sea level plot and use your BRAIN. Sea ice spiked for one year. That is not a trend. That is an outlier. Note the fact that THIS year it’s possibly going to hit a new lowest ever value.
Oh god it’s september 11 oh how terrible clearly my comments denigrating conspiracy theorists is actually an attack on the memory of the victims! Don’t get all Godwin on me you whiny little sap. How many 9-11 conspiracy theorists do you know who died in 9-11? Oh wait, the answer is none. Allow me to make this perfectly clear – people who think that the twin towers were bought down by controlled demolition are morons, and the fact that they waste their lives making videos about missiles being fired etc rather than doing something productive to improve the world (socieoeconomic imbalance being the ACTUAL cause of 9-11) is, itself, more of an affront to the memory of those who died than anything I could say.
The reason we end up attacking the man is that we get so BORED attacking “The Man”‘s stupid arguments. The good arguments I don’t mind, and there are several though they are, as I keep pointing out to you and you keep ignoring, irrelevant as we should reduce CO2 emissions anyway just because they’re associated with lousy backward processes.
Some of your arguments are good – like “causality has not been conclusively proven” etc – but mostly they’re extensively rebutted in the public domain. The impact of water vapour and associated feedback mechanisms, for example, are widely accepted as being poorly understood. The responsible course of action in those circumstances is, however, to do more research and err on the side of caution. YOU, however, appear to be advocating that we abandon the whole thing and burn some motherfu*kin’ COAL baby.
That may not be the case however. What DO you think we should be doing G?
I never lose sleep. I always know exactly where my sleep is.
Okay, so what is the actual percentage of anthropogenic greenhouse gases outside the 95% created by water vapor? … Still no answer on the definitive percentage of AGW gases
Don’t get your undies in a bunch G. 5.53% is one figure I’ve seen. Are you going to argue that that’s too small to make any difference? If so, then you’ve read none of the excellent material linked to above.
In the period since 1750:
– human activity has increased greenhouse gasses
– significant warming has occurred
– no natural process has occurred to account for the warming (the only relevant natural process is a slight increase in solar output, the effect of human activity is estimated to be 15 times greater).
Can’t you do the math from there?
Other possible explanations (like sunspots) have been considered and discarded by the significant majority of the scientific community (sunspots make the wrong predictions about which parts of the atmosphere will warm).
T-Rex has likened the denier literature to the Sept 11 conspiracies, I think it’s more like the smoking cancer link that the tobacco companies managed to deny for so long with their shonky science and willing shills. That’s the league that you’re playing in G.
But if you don’t want to believe all those boring old scientists, how about serious business people? Read the report by the Association of British Insurers, planning for how the industry should deal with the expected increasing costs from climate change effects:
The Earth’s climate is changing and will continue to change over this century.The 1990s were the warmest decade globally since records began, with the four warmest years all occurring since 1998. In 2003, Europe experienced its hottest summer for at least 500 years, with temperatures more than 2°C warmer than the average. In the UK, temperatures reached a record-breaking 38°C.Temperatures could increase by a further 6°C by the end of the century if there is no action to tackle climate change.
FINDINGS
Projected climate change poses a serious threat to America’s national security. The predicted effects of climate change over the coming decades include extreme weather events, drought, flooding, sea level rise, retreating glaciers, habitat shifts, and the increased spread of life-threatening diseases. These conditions have the potential to disrupt our way of life and to force changes in the way we keep ourselves safe and secure.
So how about the Pentagon G – “warm mongers”? Got it wrong have they?
“I think it’s more like the smoking cancer link that the tobacco companies managed to deny for so long with their shonky science and willing shills. That’s the league that you’re playing in G.”
That’s a much better example in terms of the industry mentality, although I think the poor science and selective use of evidence employed by the amateur deniers almost exactly parallels that of other conspiracy theorists. And I’ve still got a grudge against 9-11 conspiracy theorists.
There are levels of denial too. It IS hard to tell exactly what the degree of impact will be – I don’t mind people who say “we don’t know for sure”. The people who piss me off are the ones who go “Man is not, can not, and will never have an impact on the global climate”. Those are the same people who say “There are too many trees in the amazon basin for the lumber/farmin industry to have an impact (in fact I believe the same argument was applied to Kauri’s in NZ), too many fish in the sea for fisheries to have an impact, too much water in the world for DDT to have an impact” etc etc. They have been almost universally wrong so far, and they are almost universally pushing some alternate agenda.
Watch what you argue and how you argue it G, it’s the difference between being an intelligent skeptic displaying caution in the face of public sentiment and being a corporate tool.
G, this is from memory and may be entirely wrong, but I understand CO2 was below 200ppm in the pre-industrial revolution era. It’s now 350ppm and forecast to hit 550ppm by 2050.
We’re looking at a doubling, or more, in the volume of airborne CO2.
Interesting that you commented (relating to volcanic events) that earth is very resilient. That, G, is spot-on. The last time something like this happened, the dinosaurs were thoroughly wiped out, yet the earth was fine; it recovered no worries.
Now how is it you find that of comfort? I bet a T-rex (picking a dinosaur at random…or am I?) is more resilient than us wimpy homo sapiens.
T-rex: “And I’ve still got a grudge against 9-11 conspiracy theorists.”
You sure do! heh. I studied holocaust denial at one stage, and have noted that the style used is oft repeated (disclaimer: please note all, that this has nothing to do with the holocaust specifically. I’m simply talking about the methods used to discredit any idea; using said method does NOT equate one with being a holocaust denier in terms of how evil you are).
It is very simple – you discount one part of an idea you don’t like, and suddenly the whole concept must be wrong. A fascinating example was the “there were no Nazi gas chambers” concept. Someone studied old gas chambers and found two points – there weren’t the correct type of rubber seals on the doors, and the walls did not contain a remnant of the zyklon-b gas used.
Therefore, the Nazis were misunderstood, and the Evil Jews are taking us all for a ride with Holocaust(TM).
Such methodology is used to a remarkable degree – it’s not hard to imagine a scenario in which those two issues identified could be explained away – one must ask where the weight of evidence lies, even if specifics aren’t as expected.
Something to consider. I found that with 9-11 stuff. One or two facts don’t fit right, so it was a Vast Conspiracy. I just can’t see it. Same with climate change. Sure – the models aren’t perfect, but where’s the real eight of evidence?
You see, this one piece of genuine junk science says it all. Everyone was sucked in back then, all the way up to the heads of state, and now all those state-sponsored scientists are desperately holding on to their jobs by perpetuating the myth.
AGW is a T.H.E.O.R.Y… it hasn’t been proven ~ not here, not anywhere ~ and there’s a huge number of genuine scientists who are now rejecting it outright. If it was fact why don’t the IPCC just accept the call for an independent debate and get on with it? Answer: because denying is heresy, they have a vested interest in the warm-mongering, there’s a stack of contrary evidence that would throw doubt into the minds of too many people, and they need to have a consensus for the gravy train to keep on rolling.
I note that none of you has refuted Prof. Clarks charts that prove we’re in actually in cooling trend since way back.
The day climate models start hitting their marks, let me know. In the meantime relax… it’s all gonna be okay. 🙂
“You see, this one piece of genuine junk science says it all.”
No, it doesn’t. Give me a single example of a field of scientific endeavour where the answer was perfect first time round? Quantum physics is a great example Lynn.
Who the f*ck cares that it’s been warmer in the past? Like Matt says, there have been mass extinction events in the past. By your reasoning, if a giant asteroid was going to hit the earth we should worry, because asteroids have hit the earth in the past. If you accept that there is likely to be a global temperature rise of a couple of degrees then you have to accept ALLLL the drama that comes with it, no matter how many such rises there have been previously.
Global warming would not cause the “end of the world”. It just might make things pretty freaking difficult for those who have adapted to the status quo.
For now, G, I’m concluding that you’re actually some 16yo web-warrior who reads too many Michael Crichton books, so I can’t be bothered arguing the point – given most of your arguments are irrelevant. But whatever, you stick at it, I guess at least you’re doing SOME quasi-research, it’s probably better for you than playing grand theft auto all day.
“It will be a bit too late by then, I’m afraid, given that the same models generally say that if we act now, we’re only fairly screwed, not goneburger.”
Thing is, Matthew, if the models are inaccurate, they’re inaccurate. Why give them any credence? Pascal’s wager is no reason to introduce yet another tax.
“Quantum theory is just a THEORY.”
Ahhh, Iprent (or is it Lynn?), but unlike climate modeling, Quantum mechanics are reliable, otherwise they’d be entirely useless…
“Everything is a theory – NOTHING can be ‘proved’ unless you want to rely on faith.”
… and there it is: faith and AGW; the new religion for which skeptics are brandished as heretics.
“Who the f*ck cares that it’s been warmer in the past?”
You should care, T, because as soon as you get your head around the idea that it was warmer in the past – thousands of years before industrialisation – it’ll dawn on you that this is simply part of Earth’s natural cycle. Take another look at those charts. The long term trend is indicating a gradual cooling. If anything we should be pumping more greenhouse gas into the atmosphere.
“Thing is, Matthew, if the models are inaccurate, they’re inaccurate.”
Hey everybody, look! It’s a climate change denier with a black and white view of an issue! Come quick, bring your camera!
“Ahhh, Iprent (or is it Lynn?), but unlike climate modeling, Quantum mechanics are reliable, otherwise they’d be entirely useless “
Look, they don’t understand quantum mechanics either!! They’re only reliable on AVERAGE G, much like most… oh, what were we talking about a moment ago? Oh yeah, models.
“and there it is: faith and AGW; the new religion for which skeptics are brandished as heretics.” said the annoying Troll, deliberately misinterpreting what had just been suggested.
“You should care, T, because as soon as you get your head around the idea that it was warmer in the past – thousands of years before industrialisation – it’ll dawn on you that this is simply part of Earth’s natural cycle. Take another look at those charts. The long term trend is indicating a gradual cooling. If anything we should be pumping more greenhouse gas into the atmosphere.”
…Actually I think I’ll just leave that. Your reasoning is GOD. AWFUL. However it might interest you to know that one of the possible results of significant GHG emissions is another ice age. Though not in the “Day after tomorrow” sense. Not that that is remotely pointed to by any of your data.
Meteor strikes and supervolcanos are part of the earths natural cycle you gumby, it doesn’t mean we should aim to artifically recreate them.
Take another look at those charts. The long term trend is indicating a gradual cooling.
G you’re the biggest fool I’ve ever seen on this blog, and that is against some very stern competition. Congratulations.
You cling to these charts to claim that the climate is cooling when all other sources cited above say it is warming. You believe these charts compared to all other sources because you think they tell you what you want to believe. Well, you have a problem. The charts are based on data from the Hadley Center – the UK Met Office (see the bottom right of graph 1). So what do the Hadley Center have to say? Let’s start with an introduction on a climate science blog:
The top climate scientists at the UK’s Hadley Center for Climate Prediction get no respect. No matter how many times they try to explain that their data clearly shows the world is warming (see “Hadley Center to delayers: We’re warming, not cooling”), people, including those commenting on this very blog, keep insisting their data shows otherwise (see here).
The deniers/delayer-1000s cite recent UK Hadley Center data to promote their “climate is cooling’ disinformation. … It is only fair to ask what the Hadley Center thinks its data shows (much as we’ve heard NASA explain that its data shows unequivocal warming). Answer: they believe it unequivocally shows we are in a warming trend, including this decade.
Fact 1: Climate change is happening and humans are contributing to it
Fact 2: Temperatures are continuing to rise
Fact 3: The current climate change is not just part of a natural cycle
Fact 4: Recent warming cannot be explained by the Sun or natural factors alone
Fact 5: If we continue emitting greenhouse gases this warming will continue and delaying action will make the problem more difficult to fix
Fact 6: Climate models predict the main features of future climate
So there you go G, you say the Hadley Center data shows cooling, the Hadley Center (you know – professional meteorologists, the people who publish the data) say it shows warming.
Who should we believe G – you or the Hadley Center?
I just checked, and according to SCIENCE the average temperature of the universe 300,000 years after its formation was 3000 degrees kelvin. It is WAY colder than that on earth now! Look out! Spread the truth!
Gotta go, I haven’t twittered on myspace for like 8minutes and my livejournal is way out of date plzkthanks.
It always makes me laugh how the fossil fuel lobby is always pushing the line that “those damn paleoclimatologists are just trying to keep themselves in a job” and keeping a straight face.
Damn paleoclimatologists. Always looking out for number one they are. Unlike the fossil fuel industry, which is famously altruistic and is just after what’s best for humanity as a whole…
It always makes me laugh how the fossil fuel lobby is always pushing the line that “those damn paleoclimatologists are just trying to keep themselves in a job’
Oath. It’s an astoundingly paranoid worldview. There is a conspiracy of tens and hundreds of thousands, lasting decades. The conspiracy consists of scientists who set out to learn about the world, but are deliberately lying about what they have discovered in order to hold on their enormous government pay checks. Even though there are many private sector companies that would actually pay them more money to tell the truth, these scientists continue to lie because, ummm, they want gov’t grants to continue studying things they know are false. Or something.
Buzz from the Beehive Transport Minister Simeon Brown dutifully issued advice to all road users to keep safe on our roads during the Easter weekend. He encouraged them to stay safe, plan their journeys ahead of time, and be patient with other drivers while travelling around this Easter long weekend. ...
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The cruelty of short-term memory loss is that each time you ask where she is, you get the fresh shock and grief of the news. That was Dad's day yesterday.Comfortingly, it seems to be less so today. Last night he looked crumpled, today he seems more settled. There's a card ...
The Coalition Government’s plan to ‘get Auckland moving’ is a cuts cover-up that will ultimately cost Aucklanders more to move around the city, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
Slashing the Ministry of Pacific Peoples by 40% will have a devastating impact on pacific communities and further highlights how little this government cares about anything other than cutting taxes for the wealthiest few. ...
Labour has proposed an urgent inquiry to investigate the ever-increasing profits of supermarkets, aiming to lower costs for shoppers and food producers alike, says Labour Spokesperson for Commerce and Consumer Affairs Arena Williams and Primary Production Spokesperson Cushla Tangaere-Manuel. ...
With 14% of jobs on the line at the Ministry for Ethnic Communities, the responsible Minister Melissa Lee is failing to stand up for the very communities she’s meant to be representing. ...
COURT OF APPEAL: TRIFECTA OF VICTORY FOR NZ FIRST, TRIFECTA OF FAILURE FOR OPPONENTS For the third time since April 2020, New Zealand First has defeated the Serious Fraud Office and all those complicit in a malicious attack against a political party going about its lawful business in a lawful ...
The Green Party stands with people who live in public housing, people in dire housing need, experts and advocates in demanding better than the Government’s archaic approach to housing those who need our support the most. ...
New Zealand has recently lost the hosting rights of some major international sporting events including the America’s Cup, the Rugby Championship, Netball World Cup, and the Wellington Sevens. We are now at a huge risk of losing SailGP as well. And it won’t stop there. The recent issues with SailGP ...
A Member’s Bill drawn this week would modernise insurance law and make things fairer and more transparent for consumers, Christchurch Central MP Duncan Webb said. ...
The Minister for Disability Issues has confirmed she was aware of funding issues in mid-December and did nothing to stop it. On 14 March, she signed off on changes that were announced and implemented on 18 March without any consultation with disability communities. ...
Green Party MP Julie Anne Genter says her members' bill is an opportunity for the coalition government to plug the gap in electric vehicle incentives. ...
The National Government continues to talk about irresponsible tax cuts that will only drive up inflation, despite the country entering a technical recession. ...
The Minister for Disability Issues must act urgently to reinstate flexibility around the funding for disability support and apologise to disabled carers. ...
This story has been initiated by a leftie shill reporter who proactively sought to call a member of a former band, which disbanded twelve years ago, give their biased appraisal of what was said in my speech, and concocted a ham-fisted attempt at a story that does nothing but show ...
The Government has accepted Labour’s change to the Road User Charge (RUC) discount for hybrid vehicles, meaning there will still be some incentive for people to buy greener vehicles. ...
Many in the mainstream media have taken what was said in New Zealand First’s State of the Nation Speech in Palmerston North on Sunday and deliberately, deceitfully, and ignorantly misrepresented what I said and why I said it. The headlines and commentary on the news stated that I compared ‘co-governance ...
Kicking the most vulnerable people out of state housing and pushing them towards homelessness will result in a proliferation of poverty and trauma across our most vulnerable communities. ...
Te Pāti Māori co-leader and MP for Waiariki, Rawiri Waititi has penned a letter asking MPs to support his members bill to remove GST from all food. The bill is expected to go through its first reading in parliament this Wednesday. “I’m calling on all political parties to support my ...
Good afternoon. Thank you for, in your very busy lives, turning up to this meeting today. On October 14th last year New Zealanders overwhelmingly voted for change. That is exactly what this new government is bringing. New Zealand First campaigned to ‘take back our country’ and stop the disastrous economic ...
This year is about getting real with Kiwis and discussing the tough issues, as the National Government exacerbates inequality and divides New Zealand, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said ...
The Government adding Significant Natural Areas (SNAs) to its already roaring environmental policy bonfire is an assault on the future of wildlife that makes Aotearoa unique. ...
After 12 years of fighting to protect our moana we are finding ourselves back at square one and back at court. Today, the Environmental Protection Agency is sitting in Hawera to reconsider an application from Trans-Tasman Resources to dig up 50 million tonnes of the seabed in South Taranaki. This ...
Minister Shane Jones’ decision to step away from a seabed mining project is evidence of the murky waters surrounding the Government’s fast-track legislation. ...
The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last government in a bid to get greater coherence in the publicservice on Treaty matters. When ministers first considered the need for tighter oversight in 2021, there ...
The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last government in a bid to get greater coherence in the publicservice on Treaty matters. When ministers first considered the need for tighter oversight in 2021, there ...
The Coalition Government’s miscalculation saga continues as it has forgotten an eyewatering $90 million gap in its interest deductibility cost figures, say Labour Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds and Revenue Spokesperson Deborah Russell. ...
He Pou a Rangi Climate Change Commission has today released advice that says if the Government doesn’t act now New Zealand is at risk of not meeting its climate goals. ...
The Coalition Government has today confirmed it is abandoning first home buyers who are struggling to get ahead, says Labour Finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds. ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed the passing of legislation to move light electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) into the road user charges system from 1 April. “It was always intended that EVs and PHEVs would be exempt from road user charges until they reached two ...
New Zealand is strengthening its ability to combat illegal fishing outside its domestic waters and beef up regulation for its own commercial fishers in international waters through a Bill which had its first reading in Parliament today. The Fisheries (International Fishing and Other Matters) Amendment Bill 2023 sets out stronger ...
Economists Carl Hansen and Professor Prasanna Gai have been appointed to the Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee, Finance Minister Nicola Willis announced today. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is the independent decision-making body that sets the Official Cash Rate which determines interest rates. Carl Hansen, the executive director of Capital ...
Apartment owners and buyers will soon have greater protections as further changes to the law on unit titles come into effect, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “The Unit Titles (Strengthening Body Corporate Governance and Other Matters) Amendment Act had already introduced some changes in December 2022 and May 2023, and ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters will travel to Egypt and Europe from this weekend. “This travel will focus on a range of New Zealand’s traditional diplomatic and security partnerships while enabling broad engagement on the urgent situation in Gaza,” Mr Peters says. Mr Peters will attend the NATO Foreign ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown is encouraging all road users to stay safe, plan their journeys ahead of time, and be patient with other drivers while travelling around this Easter long weekend. “Road safety is a responsibility we all share, and with increased traffic on our roads expected this Easter we ...
About 1.4 million New Zealanders will receive cost of living relief through increased government assistance from April 1 909,000 pensioners get a boost to Superannuation, including 5000 veterans 371,000 working-age beneficiaries will get higher payments 45,000 students will see an increase in their allowance Over a quarter of New Zealanders ...
Ensuring social housing is being provided to those with the greatest needs is front of mind as the Government restarts social housing tenancy reviews, Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka says. “Our relentless focus on building a strong economy is to ensure we can deliver better public services such as social ...
The Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary will not go ahead, with Cabinet deciding to stop work on the proposed reserve and remove the Bill that would have established it from Parliament’s order paper. “The Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary Bill would have created a 620,000 sq km economic no-go zone,” Oceans and Fisheries Minister ...
Dam safety regulations are being amended so that smaller dams won’t be subject to excessive compliance costs, Minister for Building and Construction Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on reducing costs and removing unnecessary red tape so we can get the economy back on track. “Dam safety regulations ...
The coalition Government is expanding the medium-scale adverse event classification to parts of the North Island as dry weather conditions persist, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced today. “I have made the decision to expand the medium-scale adverse event classification already in place for parts of the South Island to also cover the ...
The passing of legislation giving effect to coalition Government tax commitments has been welcomed by Finance Minister Nicola Willis. “The Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill will help place New Zealand on a more secure economic footing, improve outcomes for New Zealanders, and make our tax system ...
Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins and Tertiary Education and Skills Minister Penny Simmonds today announced plans to transform our science and university sectors to boost the economy. Two advisory groups, chaired by Professor Sir Peter Gluckman, will advise the Government on how these sectors can play a greater ...
The Budget will deliver urgently-needed tax relief to hard-working New Zealanders while putting the government’s finances back on a sustainable track, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The Finance Minister made the comments at the release of the Budget Policy Statement setting out the Government’s Budget objectives. “The coalition Government intends ...
The coalition Government will look at options to address a zoning issue that limits how much financial support Queenstown residents can get for accommodation. Cabinet has agreed on a response to the Petitions Committee, which had recommended the geographic information MSD uses to determine how much accommodation supplement can be ...
Cabinet has agreed to a short extension to the final reporting timeframe for the Royal Commission into Abuse in Care from 28 March 2024 to 26 June 2024, Internal Affairs Minister Brooke van Velden says. “The Royal Commission wrote to me on 16 February 2024, requesting that I consider an ...
The coalition Government is delivering an $18 million boost to New Zealanders needing to travel for specialist health treatment, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says. “These changes are long overdue – the National Travel Assistance (NTA) scheme saw its last increase to mileage and accommodation rates way back in 2009. ...
The Government is recognising the innovative and rising talent in New Zealand’s growing space sector, with the Prime Minister and Space Minister Judith Collins announcing the new Prime Minister’s Prizes for Space today. “New Zealand has a growing reputation as a high-value partner for space missions and research. I am ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has confirmed New Zealand’s concerns about cyber activity have been conveyed directly to the Chinese Government. “The Prime Minister and Minister Collins have expressed concerns today about malicious cyber activity, attributed to groups sponsored by the Chinese Government, targeting democratic institutions in both New ...
Independent Reviewers appointed for School Property Inquiry Education Minister Erica Stanford today announced the appointment of three independent reviewers to lead the Ministerial Inquiry into the Ministry of Education’s School Property Function. The Inquiry will be led by former Minister of Foreign Affairs Murray McCully. “There is a clear need ...
State Highway 1 across the Brynderwyns will be open for Easter weekend, with work currently underway to ensure the resilience of this critical route being paused for Easter Weekend to allow holiday makers to travel north, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Today I visited the Brynderwyn Hills construction site, where ...
Introduction Good morning to you all, and thanks for having me bright and early today. I am absolutely delighted to be the Minister for Infrastructure alongside the Minister of Housing and Resource Management Reform. I know the Prime Minister sees the three roles as closely connected and he wants me ...
New Zealand stands with the United Kingdom in its condemnation of People’s Republic of China (PRC) state-backed malicious cyber activity impacting its Electoral Commission and targeting Members of the UK Parliament. “The use of cyber-enabled espionage operations to interfere with democratic institutions and processes anywhere is unacceptable,” Minister Responsible for ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Defence Minister Judith Collins today announced New Zealand will provide logistics support for the upcoming Solomon Islands election. “We’re sending a team of New Zealand Defence Force personnel and two NH90 helicopters to provide logistics support for the election on 17 April, at the request ...
The European Union Free Trade Agreement Legislation Amendment Bill received Royal Assent today, completing the process for New Zealand’s ratification of its free trade agreement with the European Union. “I am pleased to announce that today, in a small ceremony at the Beehive, New Zealand notified the European Union ...
Public consultation on the terms of reference for the Royal Commission into COVID-19 Lessons has concluded, Internal Affairs Minister Hon Brooke van Velden says. “I have been advised that there were over 11,000 submissions made through the Royal Commission’s online consultation portal.” Expanding the scope of the Royal Commission of ...
Hardworking families are set to benefit from a new credit to help them meet their early childcare education (ECE) costs, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. From 1 July, parents and caregivers of young children will be supported to manage the rising cost of living with a partial reimbursement of their ...
A specialised Independent Technical Advisory Group (ITAG) tasked with preparing and publishing independent non-binding advice on the design of a "green" (sustainable finance) taxonomy rulebook is being established, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “Comprising experts and market participants, the ITAG's primary goal is to deliver comprehensive recommendations to the ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins has thanked the Chief of Army, Major General John Boswell, DSD, for his service as he leaves the Army after 40 years. “I would like to thank Major General Boswell for his contribution to the Army and the wider New Zealand Defence Force, undertaking many different ...
25 March 2024 Minister to meet Australian counterparts and Manufacturing Industry Leaders Small Business, Manufacturing, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly will travel to Australia for a series of bi-lateral meetings and manufacturing visits. During the visit, Minister Bayly will meet with his Australian counterparts, Senator Tim Ayres, Ed ...
Government commits almost $3 million for period products in schools The Coalition Government has committed $2.9 million to ensure intermediate and secondary schools continue providing period products to those who need them, Minister of Education Erica Stanford announced today. “This is an issue of dignity and ensuring young women don’t ...
Good morning, it’s great to be here. First, I would like to acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of Building Surveyors and thank you for the opportunity to be here this morning. I would like to use this opportunity to outline the Government’s ambitious plan and what we hope to ...
Minister for Pacific Peoples Dr Shane Reti has announced the Government’s commitment to the Auckland Secondary Schools Māori and Pacific Islands Cultural Festival, more commonly known as Polyfest. “The Ministry for Pacific Peoples is a longtime supporter of Polyfest and, as it celebrates 49 years in 2024, I’m proud to ...
Before moving onto the substance of today’s address, I want to recognise the very significant and ongoing contribution the Breast Cancer Foundation makes to support the lives of New Zealand women and their families living with breast cancer. I very much enjoy working with you. I also want to recognise ...
New Zealand has notched up a first with the launch of University of Canterbury research to the International Space Station, Science, Innovation and Technology and Space Minister Judith Collins says. The hardware, developed by Dr Sarah Kessans, is designed to operate autonomously in orbit, allowing scientists on Earth to study ...
Introduction Thank you for inviting me to speak with you today and I’m sorry I can’t be there in person. Yesterday I started in Wellington for Breakfast TV, spoke to a property conference in Auckland, and finished the day speaking to local government in Christchurch, so it would have been ...
The Coalition Government is contributing more than $1 million to support the establishment of an emergency multi-agency coordination centre in Northland. Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell announced the contribution today during a visit of the Whangārei site where the facility will be constructed. “Northland has faced a number ...
New Zealanders have enjoyed a broader range of voices telling the story of Aotearoa thanks to the creation of Whakaata Māori 20 years ago, says Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka. The minister spoke at a celebration marking the national indigenous media organisation’s 20th anniversary at their studio in Auckland on ...
Commercial catch limits for some fisheries have been increased following a review showing stocks are healthy and abundant, Ocean and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The changes, along with some other catch limit changes and management settings, begin coming into effect from 1 April 2024. "Regular biannual reviews of fish ...
Opposition MPs and unions are criticising a proposal by New Zealand’s Ministry of Pacific Peoples to cut staff by 40 percent. The country’s largest trade union — The Public Service Association — says the ministry has informed staff that it is looking to shed 63 of 156 positions. Opposition MPs ...
A poem by Poetry Aotearoa Yearbook 2024 featured poet Carin Smeaton. Daughtr of the 90s when she gets promoted to usherette a baby blu eel carries her all the way up to mothership she’s hovering high she lets the underaged in to see keanu reeves she lets the only lonely ...
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand. My earlier article – Can ‘Good’ be the Greater Evil? – looked at the issue of how wars should end, and how Good versus Evil ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 AMMA by Saraid de Silva (Moa Press, $38)A stunning debut novel reviewed by Brannavan ...
From Steve Martin to Ricky Stanicky, a pick’n’mix of things worth watching and listening to this long weekend. This is an excerpt from our weekly pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up here. If you’re at a loss for something to occupy yourself with this Easter, don’t panic: The Spinoff’s got ...
Jesus had dinner with his 12 disciples right before he died. Noted historian Madeleine Chapman finds out who really deserved to be there.First published in 2018 but let’s be honest, the subject is timeless. As you sit on your couch this Easter Sunday, eating a chocolate egg you know ...
The newly-promoted Northern League club is on a mission to return to the National League for the first time in two decades. Plenty about domestic football in New Zealand has changed in that time – but the sense that this amateur competition is not an entirely level playing field remains. ...
Comment: Every year on February 2, a dozen men in tuxedos and top hats approach the burrow of a groundhog in Gobbler’s Knob, Pennsylvania and entice the beaver-like rodent to emerge and predict the weather. If the groundhog, named Punxsutawney Phil, sees its own shadow when it is summoned, legend ...
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Auckland Council has put a deadline on new weather-impacted property owners applying for categorisation as government funding looks set to run out. Councillors have voted to support a deadline of September 30 for property owners who haven’t accessed support to come forward and engage with the council’s recovery office. It ...
NONFICTION 1 BBQ Economics by Liam Dann (Penguin Random House, $40) “It’s official,” wrote Dann nine days ago in the Herald, where he works as business editor at large, “we’re in recession.” Yeah, great. He delivered the bad stats: “GDP fell 0.1 percent in the December 2023 quarter, compared with ...
By Anneke Smith, RNZ News political reporter A petition urging the New Zealand government to provide urgent humanitarian assistance to the Palestinian people has been tabled in the House. More than 200 people gathered on Parliament’s forecourt today and they were met by MPs from Labour, the Greens and Te ...
Pacific Media Watch The Paris-based global media freedom watchdog RSF (Reporters Without Borders) has appealed for information about the “disappearance” of Palestinian journalist Bayan Abusultan. She was reportedly last seen on March 19 among people “sequestered” in this week’s raid and siege of Al Shifa hospital by Israeli troops in ...
EDITORIAL:The Jakarta Post It happens again and again; indigenous Papuans fall victim to Indonesian soldiers. This time, we have photographic evidence for the brutality, with videos on social media showing a Papuan man being tortured by a group of plainclothes men alleged to be the Indonesian Military (TNI) members. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robyn J. Whitaker, Director of the Wesley Centre for Theology, Ethics, and Public Policy & Associate Professor, New Testament, Pilgrim Theological College, University of Divinity A strange and eclectic range of activities takes place across these few weeks of the year. Some ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Panizza Allmark, Professor Visual & Cultural Studies, Edith Cowan University It’s Easter weekend, which means many of us will be kicking back with the greatest hits on repeat. But whether you’re a boomer, or an ‘80s or ’90s kid, you might be ...
RNZ Pacific Fiji’s Acting Public Prosecutor has filed an appeal against the sentences of former prime minister Voreqe Bainimarama and suspended police chief Sitiveni Qiliho in their corruption case. Bainimarama was granted an absolute discharge for attempting to pervert the course of justice while Qiliho received a conditional discharge with ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Arosha Weerakoon, Senior Lecturer and General Dentist, School of Dentistry, The University of Queensland Casezy idea/Shutterstock How does toothpaste work? What did people use before toothpaste was invented? – Amelia, age 7, Meanjin (Brisbane) Thanks for your ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brett Hallam, Associate professor, UNSW Sydney IM Imagery/Shutterstock Solar SunShot is well named. The Australian government announced today it would plough A$1 billion into bringing back solar manufacturing to Australia, boosting energy security, swapping coal and gas jobs for those ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Dix, Research Fellow in Nutrition & Dietetics, The University of Queensland Easter is the time for chocolate. The shops are full of fantastically packaged and shiny chocolates in all shapes and sizes, making trips to the supermarket with children more challenging ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emma Felton, Adjunct Senior Researcher, University of South Australia Even in a stubborn cost-of-living crisis, it seems there’s one luxury most Australians won’t sacrifice – their daily cup of coffee. Coffee sales have largely remained stable, even as financial pressures have ...
Mining company Trans-Tasman Resources has unexpectedly withdrawn its application for a consent to suck the valuable metals vanadium and titanium from the Taranaki seafloor, as it apparently wagers on the Government’s new fast-track process. It had spent two-and-a-half days putting its case to the Environmental Protection Agency’s decision-making committee, at ...
Contrary to the Associate Minister of Education’s claims, analysis of Healthy School Lunches Programme - Ka Ora, Ka Ako assessments has revealed it provides excellent value for the taxpayer dollar, as a groundswell of public opposition to Government ...
Greenpeace says wannabe Taranaki seabed miner Trans-Tasman Resources is likely banking on Christopher Luxon’s fast-track process to side-step proper scrutiny of its Taranaki seabed mining proposal by bailing out of the Environmental Protection Agency hearing ...
Kiwis Against Seabed mining today slammed Australian owned would-be seabed miner Trans Tasman Resources (TTR) for abandoning its application to the Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) to mine the seabed of the South Taranaki Bight. The company ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katie Attwell, Associate Professor, School of Social Sciences, The University of Western Australia Ground Picture/Shutterstock Months after COVID vaccines were introduced in 2021, governments and private organisations mandated them for various groups. Health and aged care workers were among the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Dzurak, Scientia Professor Andrew Dzurak, CEO and Founder of Diraq, UNSW Sydney Diraq For decades, the pursuit of quantum computing has struggled with the need for extremely low temperatures, mere fractions of a degree above absolute zero (0 Kelvin or ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne A national Essential poll, conducted March 20–24 from a sample of 1,150, gave the Coalition a 50–44 lead including undecided, a reversal ...
The Taxpayers’ Union has today made a formal request under the Regulations of the People’s Republic of China on Open Government Information () for information held about how New Zealand Members of Parliament are spending taxpayer ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robert Nelson, Honorary Principal Fellow, The University of Melbourne A Byzantine depiction of the Eucharist in Saint Sophia Cathedral, Kyiv.Jacek555/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA A nasty quarrel arose in the 11th century over what kind of bread should be used in holy ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Patrick Hesp, Professor, Flinders University Patrick Hesp In some parts of Australia, coastal dunes are retreating from the ocean at an alarming rate, as waves carve up the beach and wind blows the sand inland. But coastal communities are largely ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Luke Heemsbergen, Senior Lecturer, Digital, Political, Media, Deakin University With an impressive 60% of the US smartphone market, Apple is undeniably big, but not a clear monopoly. Yet, years of innovation by Apple have effectively given the company its own exclusive ...
Whether you’re facing layoffs or are just an emotional junior staffer, it’s always a good idea to scout out a good crying place before you need it. It’s an incredibly hard time for Wellington. Across the city, thousands of public servants are hearing tough news about redundancies and layoffs. Government ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Miller-Jones, Professor, Curtin University Nuclear explosions on a neutron star feed its jets. Danielle Futselaar and Nathalie Degenaar, Anton Pannekoek Institute, University of Amsterdam, CC BY-SA How fast can a neutron star drive powerful jets into space? The answer, it ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daryl Adair, Associate Professor of Sport Management, University of Technology Sydney Earlier this week, independent MP Andrew Wilkie accused the AFL of conducting “off the books” illicit drug testing to identify players using substances of abuse, then inappropriately withdrawing them from matches ...
The Government’s announcement that it will scrap plans for a vast marine sanctuary around the Kermadec Islands is ‘shameful’ and will make it impossible for Aotearoa New Zealand to meet its international commitments, says the World Wide Fund for Nature ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland Shutterstock The federal government has bowed to pressure from the car industry, announcing it will relax proposed emissions rules for utes and vans and delay enforcement of the new standards ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Suzanne Rutland, Professor Emerita, University of Sydney In his latest book, Jewish Life in Medieval Spain, Jonathan Ray focuses on the tumult of the 14th century in Spain – a time of the plague, civil strife and war between the two largest ...
While creating a slate of world-class shows, Whakaata Māori also developed a generation of world-class creatives. Television is an odd word. It mixes the Ancient Greek and Latin languages, and its most literal meaning is “far-off sight”. In the contemporary and living language of te reo Māori, “whakaata” as a ...
Yesterday the UN Security Council passed a resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire in Israel’s war on Gaza. This significant step and the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza prompted an urgent debate in the New Zealand Parliament. Leader ...
The Government’s decision to reduce access to continuous glucose monitors (CGM) not only threatens the lives of children with type 1 diabetes and increases the potential for ‘Dead in Bed’ syndrome, but also threatens the health of their parents an ...
Apples are available year-round, but the wide variety on offer involves intensive scientific research – and large-scale commercialisation. What’s beautiful, red, sweet and crunchy? Tony Martin’s favourite kind of apple: Sassy. The CEO of apple and pear breeding organisation Prevar, Martin’s fondness for Sassy represents professional success as well as ...
Family violence specialist service Shine is calling on employers to stop asking for proof of domestic violence in order for employees to access domestic violence leave. The call comes five years after the introduction of the Domestic Violence ...
The Deputy Chairperson of the Finance and Expenditure Committee is calling for public submissions on the Budget Policy Statement 2024. The Budget Policy Statement 2024 (BPS) sets out the Government's priorities for the 2024 Budget. It explains the approach ...
Brutal government spending cuts that will see the size of the Ministry for Pacific Peoples slashed by 40% will hit Pasifika communities hard, the PSA says. The Ministry has told staff that it is seeking voluntary redundancies, and to redeploy and reassign ...
I live with five people I mostly love, but our different ideas about generosity are starting to really irk me.Want Hera’s help? Email your problem to helpme@thespinoff.co.nzDear Hera,This is a bit of a random one but here goes. I’m 22 and work an OK job (OK meaning I get paid ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Maria Nicholas, Senior Lecturer in Language and Literacy Education, Deakin University Earlier this month, the New South Wales government announced it would roll out programs for gifted students in every public school in the state. This comes amid concerns gifted school ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher Rudge, Law lecturer, University of Sydney Massachusetts General Hospital In a world first, we heard last week that US surgeons had transplanted a kidney from a gene-edited pig into a living human. News reports said the procedure was a ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Tombs, Howard Paterson Chair of Theology and Public Issues, University of Otago The 5th-century Maskell panel showing Jesus in a loincloth.British Museum, CC BY-NC-SA When Jesus is shown on the cross, he is almost always depicted wearing a loincloth around ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Panizza Allmark, Professor Visual & Cultural Studies, Edith Cowan University Shutterstock When you think about a red object, you might picture a red carpet, or the massive ruby in the Queen’s crown. Indeed, Western monarchies and marketing from brands such ...
COMMENTARY:Jewish Voice for Peace The UN Security Council passed a resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza on Monday — and for the first time since the beginning of the Israeli military’s genocide of Palestinians, the United States abstained rather than vetoing it. Security Council resolutions are legally binding, ...
Asia Pacific Report A New Zealand investigative journalist and author says the US spy system hosted by the Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) appears to be a controversial intelligence system used in global capture-kill operations. Writing a commentary for RNZ News today, Nicky Hager, author of Secret Power, a 1996 ...
While Nicola Willis wouldn’t give any details on its size, she said a package of tax cuts is definitely still coming in this year’s budget, writes Catherine McGregor in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. ...
The Taxpayers’ Union is welcoming the investigation into the Department of Internal Affairs after it was revealed that the Department’s Chief Executive personally reached out to expedite a DJs passport application. Taxpayers’ Union Campaigns ...
Finance minister Nicola Willis delivers her first budget statement, and unwittingly helps Joel MacManus save his relationship. Nicola Willis strode into the Beehive Theatrette. Around me, on the green foldout seats, were the country’s top business and political journalists. They were all here to see her announce the Budget Policy ...
Twenty years ago today, Māori Television launched after much controversy. Jamie Tahana looks back on its survival and impact across two decades. Chad Chambers stepped onto the stage, the brim of his cap casting a shadow across his face. His smile beamed as bright as his white freezing works gumboots, ...
A lengthy response to the recently released draft Government policy statement on transport will soon be delivered from Auckland Council to Minister of Transport Simeon Brown. A submission raising concerns about funding distribution and the plan’s treatment of Auckland passed through the council’s transport committee on Wednesday, despite some councillors ...
The unidentified foreign intelligence operation discussed in a scathing report by New Zealand’s Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security (IGIS) last week appears to be a controversial United States intelligence system. The IGIS report said the Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) decision to host a foreign system from 2012-2020 was “improper” ...
There really are some talented people out there. great vid. someone better email it to Tracy Watkins et al, otherwise they won’t see it… this interweb thing is beyond some of them.
Herald Sun
Evidence doesn’t bare out alarmist claims of global warming
THESE are the seven graphs that should make the Rudd Government feel sick.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/files/080718%20oped%20bolt%20global%20c…
These are the seven graphs that should make you ask: What? Has global warming now stopped?
Look for yourself. They show that the world hasn’t warmed for a decade, and has even cooled for several years.
Sea ice now isn’t melting, but spreading. The seas have not just stopped rising, but started to fall.
Nor is the weather getting wilder. Cyclones, as well as tornadoes and hurricanes, aren’t increasing and the rain in Australia hasn’t stopped falling.
What’s more, the slight warming we saw over the century until 1998 still makes the world no hotter today than it was 1000 years ago.
In fact, it’s even a bit cooler. So, dude, where’s my global warming?
And so much for a consensus on the subject:
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2008/05/17/32-000-deniers.aspx
the nats will never respond to environmental issues because they are the party of the short term. maximising profits and to hell with anything else. I want my home in the south of france, a pied a terre in London, matching his and hers bentleys and enough money in th ebank to go and terrify the bank manager by threatening to move it elsewhere. anything else is a figment of fevered imagination…now where did I put my chainsaw?
G,
what a stupid comment that you posted.
Firstly, your link to the sun doesn’t work.
Secondly, your story about scientists saying that global warming doesn’t exist was done back in 1992.
It is well established now global warming does exist, it is a treat, and we do need to act.
There is no point in me referencing this point, as there is so much proof out there.
If you are going to make a point make sure your references a) work and b) arent 16 years old
because 16 years ago most of New Zealand thought that the markets would sort us out, and they were wrong.
It’s actually possible to argue that National has come a long way on climate change. It was only three years ago that party leader John Key labelled Kyoto a hoax and called the whole idea of climate change into question. “… The impact of the Kyoto Protocol, even if one believes in global warming—and I am somewhat suspicious of it—is that we will see billions and billions of dollars poured into fixing something that we are not even sure is a problem. ” (2005). (Not sure it’s a problem? Christ, what was he waiting for zero summer ice in the Arctic; longer droughts; another hottest year on record; another wiped out species?) The leadership has since cottoned on to the fact that New Zealanders will no longer tolerate this stance. However, the party’s environment and energy policies are a major step backward. They suggest National is living in an alternate reality in which there’s no such thing as climate change. The policies fail to acknowledge that climate change even exists, let alone recognise it for the crisis it is. Not that we would have expected much more from “sexy coal’ Brownlee (http://brownlee.co.nz/index.php?/archives/41-Video-Newsletter-5.html_). If Gerry thinks coal is sexy, I dread to think how he behaves around Huntly, or Solid Energy for that matter. On that note, last year Greenpeace also found some heads in sand: http://weblog.greenpeace.org.nz/climate-change/day-dreaming-heads-in-the-sand/#img
The link was working before. Try it again…
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/files/080718%20oped%20bolt%20global%20cooling.pdf
… from this article:
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,,24036602-25717,00.html
The report that 31,000 scientists (and counting) signed a petition rejecting anthropological GW is a fact, YL. Is this one recent enough for for you?:
http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS186909+02-Jun-2008+PRN20080602
As I said, there is NO consensus. The world isn’t even heating up anymore. The world is NOT going to end and you Warm-mongers should stop scaring the children.
Ahh G, haven’t seen you about since cynic gave you such an awful thumping. Glad to see you survived after all.
Now, some of the graphs in the articles you cite are irrelevant, and some of them are too short to show the trends. You need to read the basics, where such arguments are refuted:
http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change/mg19426041.100
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/629/629/7074601.stm
Re ice and melting, Arctic ice has retreated so much that new shipping lanes have opened up, and there are looming international debates over newly accessible mineral, oil and fishing rights:
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/10/science/10arctic.html
http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/pages/arctic.html
As well as Arctic (and Antarctic) ice melt, glaciers (one of the most sensitive indicators of global warming) are receding world wide – see dramatic images here:
http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/pages/glaciers.html
Yes, cause and effect are difficult to prove conclusively, but the overwhelming body of scientific evidence is now agreed by the overwhelming majority of scientists:
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/science/topics/globalwarming/index.html?inline=nyt-classifier
And as for your petitions of scientists alleged to have signed petitions, well sadly those who deny global warming have been known to fabricate evidence before:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10508754
Governments all over the world (and many individual states in America) are taking action to combat climate change. Either they are all fools G, or you are.
Cynic the laughing Hyena? Ha! He’s hardly a thumper and awfully unintelligent.
Now, back to your warm-mongering.
Fabricating evidence? How about the 35 errors in The Inconvenient Truth:
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/monckton/goreerrors.html
This, of course, includes the very inconvenient truth that the DVD is still being released with its cornerstone ‘fact’, the Hockey Stick, which the IPCC has conceded is bent and subsequently dropped from their reports.
And now the founder of the Weather Channel is gathering 30,000 scientists to sue Al Gore to finally precipitate a debate on the subject. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfHW7KR33IQ
But singularly the biggest nail in the warmist’s hoax is the fact that all their ‘bias in/bias out’ computer models are failing one-by-one to prove accurate as the Earth inevitably contradicts their predictions:
http://planetgore.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTYwMjRiZjJhMmUxYWE2MmQ0NDZhOGM0M2Q3ZWUzMmE
Have you noticed the Earth has cooled over the last few years with record lows recorded worldwide? Remember the silly bitches who made a trek to the North Pole to raise warming awareness only to be pulled out in a rescue mission and have most of their digits amputated from frostbite?
Seriously, Rob, you’re all starting to look foolish. 🙂
[G. This is a site for intelligent debate. Climate change denialism doesn’t fit meet that criterion, it hasn’t done so for the last 20 years at least. If you want to make silly arguments, go to Kiwiblog, you’ll have plenty of company. SP]
[lprent: If you’re going to attempt to argue, then at least learn something about the topic. I’m tired of the fatuous fools like you who seem to think that the earth’s hydrosphere and atmosphere operate like a classic black-body. If you don’t know what I’lm talking about then I suggest you try some elementary physics. You should also have a look at the current sizes of the artic sea ice during summer compared to historical values, and the increase in speed of the west antartic (?sp) glaciers. Then contemplate what an increasing flow of cold water due to melting does to the temperate zones where the currents flow to.
In the meantime don’t bother with fatuous arguments and links to publicity stunts.
I think that there should be more compulsary science – and people aren’t allowed to leave school until they’re passed some level of competence. ]
This site wants to shut down debate more like.
There is a growing stack of evidence to the contrary: starting with the fact that man-made CO2 contributes a gnat-sized 0.0054% of greenhouse gases (oh yeah, that’ll be the tipping point *phht*), the fact that CO2 levels lag temps by 200 years, the fact that the IPCC concedes it can’t explain why there was a spike in temps during the first 50 years of the 20th century, the fact that Earth’s temp tracks Sun Spot activity (who woulda thought, eh ~ it’s the Sun that controls our warming!), the fact that global temps have plateaued since 1998 despite CO2 continuing its climb, and the fact that more than 30,000 scientists now contradict anthropological global warming altogether… but carry on with your consensus cartoon if you wish. It’s your blog; it’s entirely your prerogative.
Just don’t tell us you’re looking for any debate because that’s a lie:
SP: “This is a site for intelligent debate. Climate change denialism doesn’t fit meet that criterion…”
What happened to the edit function? I can’t correct my italics….
Remember the silly bitches who made a trek to the North Pole
Aaaand G jumps the shark. “Silly bitches” eh G – classy. Wrong blog you misogynist git.
G: You are full of crap and incredibly ill informed.
Read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change for the idiots guide to climate change.
Some brief points on your evident lack of education.
If you were correct about insolation effects, then the 11 year sunspot cycle would manifest in temps as a direct ratio of insolation energies. It doesn’t because those effects are buffered, largely by water and atmosphere.
There is an influence from solar and that will affect gross temps – but it is a long cycle. eg the long cycle warming from the 13th (eg greenland settlement) to 17th century (when the thames froze) to the warm period at the start of the 20th. Although I’d tend to ascribe a high proportion of the latter spike to CO2 and other gases generated from some of the large volcano’s in the late 19th century.
We are definitely on the peak (or just past it) of one of those cycles, but it is insufficent to explain the temp effects measured since geophysical year in 1957.
BTW: Before you raise that press driven fear of an iceage in the 1970’s, I’d point out that was a local effect in the major industrialised areas due to dust. It did not manifest in readings worldwide. Boy, I get tired of idiots raising those press reports.
The basic fact is that CO2 levels have risen dramatically. While it has a lower effect as a greenhouse gas than other gases, it is far an away the largest by volume which makes up for its limited entropic effect.
This article will give you the link to the current NOAA figures on CO2.
That probably means that the buffering action for CO2 (mainly in the oceans from the recent acidity measurements) is starting to get less effective. That is bad news, and when the IPCC finally factors that in then you can expect their estimates of timelines to shorten massively. It means that they have been over estimating buffering
Frankly if you could find say 200 working earth or climate scientists who disagree with climate change, then I’d be far more interested than having 30k random ‘scientists’ like metrologists, chemists, etc. If you haven’t dug extensively into paleoclimatology in depth, most scientists ideas are about as useless as yours are. Their timelines are too short.
Suffice it to say I like debate on climate change. I just don’t like idiots debating. It really doesn’t matter if it is Al Gore or you or your 30k scientists. If they don’t understand enough about results from the icecores, O16/O18 isotope ratios, fossil tree rings, etc then it is rather pointless.
I’d point out at this point that I did study climate change extensively in my first degree for 3 years. I’ve been reading the papers on it for about 30 years.
Such hubris, Iprent! You think man’s 0.0054% contribution to greenhouse gas is the difference which is creating global warming?
Hilarious.
G. In other words you don’t know and are just pulling what other people say without understanding it. Educate yourself. Read the NOAA report.
This is AFTER the majority of the CO2 has been adsorbed in buffers.
What half-arsed report from some lame-arse are you picking that number from? Or is this just some figure you’re picking out of the air. Or are you considering that fossilised carbon being released is ‘natural’.
You could also consider the evidence from the carbon isotope ratio’s in atmospheric carbon. There is a pretty clear trace back to fossilised carbon being burnt.
According to Wiki as of November 2007, the CO2 concentration in Earth’s atmosphere was about 0.0384% (which is even less than other reports I’ve read). Even if man was responsible for as much as 10% of the Earth’s CO2, his contribution to the atmospheric gases would be less than 0.004%.
A gnat on an elephant’s arse, Chicken Little.
Not all gasses are greenhouse gasses you ninny. CO2 is a small percentage of all gasses, and a large percentage of greenhouse gasses. From later in the Wiki that you linked to:
Should we get rid of all the Oxygen in the air? It’s only about 20% of the atmosphere – who’s going to miss it?
A gnat on an elephant’s arse
The only arse here is the one you have your head up.
Okay, so what is the actual percentage of anthropogenic greenhouse gases outside the 95% created by water vapor?
I can’t be bothered to look it up. Small. But small changes can have large consequences in complex systems (eg with multiple feedback loops and buffering – Earth’s ecology). You like Wikipedia, go look up “Butterfly effect”. Or ponder the consequence of adding just a tiny bit of arsenic to a nice big meal.
Read the damn scientific literature critically, not just looking for factoids that support your point of view. There’s heaps of it linked above G – have you read any? Or even just take the word of the Wiki piece that you linked to, as quoted above.
G: It was in a link on your wiki link. Did you bother to read the page?
Have a look at this page and the links off it… Skip water vapour until the end.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_equivalent
Then look at the links from that for methane
(please note the word billion rather than million there..)
PFC’s
(note that there are no natural sources of PFC’s)
Nitrous Oxide
You should also look at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Major_greenhouse_gas_trends.png
From NOAA
Now water vapour is the biggest scattering agent – over 95%. However it is essentially reactive to temp’s. Look at the dewpoint at different temp’s. Higher temp’s allow higher humidity and therefore higher heat retention.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_vapour#Water_vapor_in_Earth.27s_atmosphere
So despite the other greenhouse gases being less than water vapour for greenhouse effects, it is less of a problem than the other gases. Increasing the amount of water vapor will simply cause rain/dew/etc. However raising the temp will increase the saturation level of water in the atmosphere. A small increase in overall temp due to man made gases can cause a MAJOR amplification due to its effects on water vapour. Adding even small amounts of something like PFC’s causes a ‘natural’ system to amplify it’s effect.
Presumably there will be a top off effect at some point. However I’m not sure that human agricultural and cultural patterns can withstand the changes.
Essentially you are right about volumes, and utterly wrong as to the level of effect that small changes will cause.
Think of petrol being added to an engine. It is a very small amount, but causes a lot of effect when ignited.
Have fun with your basic reading.
… thanks for that exhaustive explanation, Iprent. Still, I don’t see anywhere on those links, not anywhere here a definitive percentage attributed to the anthropogenic gases. As far as I’m aware it’s miniscule, and it’s hubris to think man’s fart in the global jet stream will have ANY effect whatsoever on the 99.99% of other gases which contribute to the greenhouse effect.
If we indeed had a consensus on this – a lie Al Gore & Co. keep perpetuating – then I might have cause for concern, but we most certainly do not. The list of sceptics which include climatologists, geologists, metrologists, chemists, environmentalists (including the founder of Greenpeace), environmental journalists, media outlets, and heads of state are growing by the day.
But the best news of all (that the world isn’t actually coming to an end) is the fact that world isn’t actually coming to an end: every single bias in/bias out computer model has missed their alarmist timetable! It’s not so much the scientists which are calling this theory a load of bullshit – it’s the Earth!
G, I understand the difficulty in accepting that our CO2 release will have a tangible effect, given that a volcanic eruption can account for, say, the US’ output for a year, easily.
One thing to consider is the fragility of the system – don’t think of it as fixed, or a constant. Changes in the past have had a huge effect on the world’s climate. If a volcanic eruption can cool the planet, why can’t we?
The other way I think of it is that there is a natural system, and it was in pretty good balance. Our impact, over two centuries, has injected a massive amount of CO2 into the atmoshpere. Two salient points – the time scale is tiny – a huge change in a comparitively small time, even if the overall percentage isn’t changing too much.
The other point is that we’ve interrupted the natural carbon cycle. Greenhouse gasses are emitted naturally, say, by gasses bubling to the surface, & geothermal activity. That’s after millions of years in a deep cycle (carbon based life forms get buried, turn into fossil fuels over a long period, and return to the surface to decompose, to put it simply). We’ve dug and drilled the stuff out, and put into the atmosphere what would have taken millions of years to occur naturally.
We need a specific set of conditions to thrive – a very specific set of conditions. It’s not impossible that we’re upsetting those conditions.
And on the brighter side, climate change got people off a court charge. Fantastic.
I like your manner, Matthew, very civilized! 🙂
Yes, I was going to get to the volcano dilemma, which goes to prove just how resilient the planet really is. It really doesn’t matter what we throw at it, the power of nature is greater than us all!
Here’s one of my favourite debunkers with a poetic rave on that very subject:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozO4YB98mCY
Of course the whole CO2 debate is predicated on CO2 actually having an effect on temperature, when in fact there is evidence to suggest the latter precedes the former by as much as 300 years.
And then there’s this:
If greenhouse warming were presently occurring you would get more warming in the troposphere, because greenhouse gases trap heat from escaping the atmosphere in the troposphere. However, that is just not the case. The data collected from satellites and weather balloons show that the earth is in fact warmer than the atmosphere. This evidence damns the theory of greenhouse effect upon climate through CO2.
All seems that measuring the troposphere isn’t that accurate just yet.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/12/tropical-troposphere-trends/
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/05/tropical-tropopshere-ii/
G: I’m not civilised, I’m a sysop.
Don’t be a dickhead. The last time that volcanic eruptions probably sent out the volume of CO2 etc for a duration that we’re emitting was probably the Deccan Flats about 65M years ago.
Most volcanic events that affect the climate are rhyolitic or andesectic (?sp) events. But they are of short duration usually only running for a few years. The basaltic eruptions run for longer but (by comparison) do not do much out-gassing. The gases tend to get bound up far more strongly into the rock structure because of mantle temps and pressures.
Consequently the buffering that has been sucking up our emissions of CO2 mops up those easily. It is relatively easy to see over the recent geological history in carbon isotope levels.
What we’re doing is having a sustained and increasing release of greenhouse gases. Consequently we’re effectively running a vast experiment on the earths buffering systems. If you’d actually read the NOAA data, they’re showing the the buffers are running out of buffer space.
So basically your analogy of looking at volcanic buffering is fundementally flawed because it is geologically rare to have a continuous stream of volcano’s going off in sequence and massively in paradel (?sp) for 50+ years.
Yes correct. BUT where there is a normal gradual rise in CO2 levels, and typically when there is significant glaciation. What you have to remember is that far less then a third of the CO2 emmissions is showing in the atmosphere. The rest is being buffered.
However you’re arguing from a different circumstance. Occassional volcanic events don’t stress the buffering as much. The 300 year lag is most likely from the CO2 going into the cold current water at the poles and then getting released hundreds of years later. There are a number of other possibilities like calcium carbonates etc, but they all act as a sink with eventual release.
But you should (for the 3rd time) read the NOAA numbers. It is showing that buffering is accepting about half the CO2 as it did 10 years ago. Moreover the emmissions are still rising. What that means is that it it is likely to showing strongly in your lifetime if you’re younger than I am. I think that we’ll see significant effects within the next 30 years.
Read Draco’s links. The people whose work you’re basing that claim on have a few wee problems with their methodology.
How about reading enough to make it worth while discussing it with you…
… and one more time… what percentage of the Greenhouse gases is Man supposedly responsible?
And while you’re at it, do you have one single climate model that’s come close to accurately predicting the average global temperature this year?
G, you’re making an idiot of yourself.
Championing those graphs that the polar bear was teaching you about does your credibility no good at all. “ooh, look, the sea ice went up last year after falling for ages, that’s a trend!”
Go and look here for a trend.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
“If greenhouse warming were presently occurring you would get more warming in the troposphere, because greenhouse gases trap heat from escaping the atmosphere in the troposphere. However, that is just not the case. The data collected from satellites and weather balloons show that the earth is in fact warmer than the atmosphere. This evidence damns the theory of greenhouse effect upon climate through CO2.”
That is completely retarded. Of course the earth is warmer than the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases don’t absorb infrared radiation, they reflect it. It doesn’t get “trapped it the troposphere”. Arguing that CO2 does not have a significant impact on global temperature isn’t “skepticism”, it’s “retardacism”. It is a proven fact, it’s not up for debate. The debate is over “how much” and “what caused it”.
As for your obvious lack of faith in models – I can only assume you’ve had very little experience with them. Models are, generally, not that good at predicting the very near future accurately. There are too many little difficult to model bits that mess things around. They can still be quite good in the long term.
Take flipping a coin. You could have a model of a fair coin, and it would only be 50% accurate in telling you whether the coin was going to land heads or tails. Flip the coin 1000 times though and you’ll find that your model is pretty damned good at telling you whether the number of heads will be between 480 and 520.
Good on you for reading around, but read around BOTH sides of the argument, don’t just look at the skeptics views.
It might interest you to know that in the IPCC’s reports they are required to consider ALL opposing submissions, and in those cases that they chose to ignore them they have to say why, and on what evidence. It’s not some bunch of global warming alarmist hacks.
—
Also, since you keep on ridiculing the possibility that small concentrations can have big effects – look up the ozone hole causes and results. How many CFC’s do you think were up there?
Finally, and in closing, as I’ve said many times before: It doesn’t matter whether CO2 is causing global warming. CO2 intensive technologies are crap for thousands of other reasons anyway, so we should move to abandon them regardless. Do you have any idea how many of the proposed emissions reductions schemes have been shown to have a significant net economic benefit? Net, in this instance, means “economic benefit for most people, just not coal power companies”.
… and still no answer! Iprent, Rob, Matthew, Draco and now T-Rex — do none of you ‘experts’ know what percentage of the greenhouse gases can be attributed to mankind? Or is it that our contribution is so flipping small you’re all too embarrassed to admit to it?
T-Rex: “Arguing that CO2 does not have a significant impact on global temperature isn’t “skepticism’, it’s “retardacism’. It is a proven fact, it’s not up for debate.”
Is that right, Mr Rex? Then how do you explain the debate ensuing over the 1.5 million hits on Google for the search “CO2 does not cause global warming”?
As for short-term charting, you’re right — the period of industrialisation in modern history is indeed just a blip in the Earth’s lifespan. Let’s have a look at what eminent marine geologist and climatologist Professor Robert Carter has to say about that:
Part One
Part Two
In this succinct lecture he demonstrates that over the last 3.5 million years, the last 400,000 years, the last 10,000 years, the last 2,000 years and the last 700 years the Earth has been cooling! The spike of the latest period of the current holocene period is, wait for it, NORMAL in both rate and change!! In fact the rate of change in the last century is actually relatively slow compared to the Ice Age when there was a 1 degree shift per decade!
In the other two parts he uses empirical science to torpedo some of the really big floaters in the warm-monger’s argument:
Part Three (This part is particularly good; at the end of it we see sun spot activity laid over the global temp – almost a perfect match. Coincidence? I don’t think so).
Part Four (You’ll love this part: “NOAA’s National Climate Data Center is in the middle of a scandal. Their global observing network, the heart and soul of surface weather measurement, is a disaster. Urbanization has placed many sites in unsuitable locations — on hot black asphalt, next to trash burn barrels, beside heat exhaust vents, even attached to hot chimneys and above outdoor grills.” – and he has photos to prove it!)
Phew. Nothing like a good night sleep knowing the sky isn’t falling. 🙂
[P.S. I’ve seen Al Snore’s alarmist doco… have you guys bothered to watch the counter-argumentative docos? The Great Global Warming Swindle is one you should all watch. The latest version, which – unlike The Inconvenient Truth – has the integrity to have been re-released with its original inaccuracies corrected.]
G said: (This part is particularly good; at the end of it we see sun spot activity laid over the global temp – almost a perfect match. Coincidence? I don’t think so).
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2007/mar/13/science.media
G said: The Great Global Warming Swindle is one you should all watch.
If they’ve removed all the inaccuracies then can’t possibly have released anything.
Gah, stuck in the SPAM trap again?
Actually, why am I even trying to correct G anyway? – he obviously doesn’t believe in actual science.
He is, ironically, adopting pretty much the same mentality as the “WTC1 & WTC2 were bought down by controlled demolition” crowd.
G, I’ll reply to you later if I am sufficiently drunk and accommodating. Probably I won’t bother, because I get really really bored of refuting the arguments of crap science.
Such as this one: “Is that right, Mr Rex? Then how do you explain the debate ensuing over the 1.5 million hits on Google for the search “CO2 does not cause global warming’?”
Yes, that’s right. And it’s SIR Mr Rex to you. I think it’s great that 1.5 million people are researching the issue, although I hope their research is a little more balanced than yours. However, research is not the same as belief (at least it shouldn’t be), and even if it was all it would prove is that 1.5million people can’t grasp basic science. CO2 IS a greenhouse gas – anyone who argues otherwise is wrong. It MAY not be resulting in abnormal and significant warming of our planet at PRESENT levels (though I’d love to know why the icecap is melting if not), but it’s sure as hell a greenhouse gas. If you don’t believe me, check out the weather on Venus. Or you think that’s just because it’s closer to the sun?
—
Has anyone read any analysis of the stabilisation effect of the icecap? I mean the phase change from ice to water consumes enourmous energy – I’d expect that to stabilise the temperature.
Think about it G – where is all the energy that’s melting the ice coming from?
Natural cycle or not, it’ll still f*ck us if we don’t prepare for it. You think the ice age/desertification will care whether they were caused by people or not? Answer is robust system. Fossil fuel dependency is anything but robust.
1) Still no answer on the definitive percentage of AGW gases.
2) I’ve not said CO2 isn’t a greenhouse gas; I’m saying Man’s contribution to it is negligible to the point of insignificance, and it may be that CO2 isn’t even the key contributer to GW.
3) You said the debate on that subject was over when it is clearly not.
4) Your precious NOAA is riddled with crap science, not Carter’s charts — nobody here or in the science community is refuting their validity.
5) Given today is 9/11, your allusion to me being a WTC conspiracy theorist is not only mean spirited, it’s actually quite distasteful.
6) As Carter observed, once again the warm-mongers inevitably resort to attacking the man.
As least one of us isn’t losing any sleep over this. 🙂
“The Earth’s atmosphere is a layer of gases surrounding the planet Earth that is retained by the Earth’s gravity. It contains roughly (by molar content/volume) 78.08% nitrogen, 20.95% oxygen, 0.93% argon, 0.038% carbon dioxide, trace amounts of other gases, and a variable amount (average around 1%) of water vapor. This mixture of gases is commonly known as air. The atmosphere protects life on Earth by absorbing ultraviolet solar radiation and reducing temperature extremes between day and night.”
So, the % of AGW gases in the atmosphere is, approximately, “sod all”, but as I mentioned earlier the absolute concentration considered alone is basically irrelevant. Notice you’ve totally failed to address your arguments flaws in light of the Ozone issue btw.
The reason nobody is responding is not because they’re embarassed, it’s because it’s commonly available knowledge already exhaustively considered and they can’t be bothered. You’re not deciphering the rosetta stone here, you’re just applying crap arguments.
You said this: “Is that right, Mr Rex? Then how do you explain the debate ensuing over the 1.5 million hits on Google for the search “CO2 does not cause global warming’?”, a statement clearly trying to discredit assertions that CO2 causes global warming. The debate is NOT over, but only because people who don’t know what they’re talking about keep on debating it. If CO2 is a greenhouse gas then it causes global warming. You ADMIT it’s a greenhouse gas, therefore you’re admitting it causes global warming. So any reference to google searches along the lines of “CO2 does not cause global warming” is just, at the cost of repeating myself, retarded. Negligible – maybe – I haven’t got a model of the climate available so I can’t tell you, but the fact that some very well informed people who DO think it’s not negligible holds some significance.
My precious NOAA? I haven’t even referenced them yet – though interestingly your friend Carter did. And I’m not saying the data is invalid, I’m saying that it’s poorly applied in this context. Look at his sea level plot and use your BRAIN. Sea ice spiked for one year. That is not a trend. That is an outlier. Note the fact that THIS year it’s possibly going to hit a new lowest ever value.
Oh god it’s september 11 oh how terrible clearly my comments denigrating conspiracy theorists is actually an attack on the memory of the victims! Don’t get all Godwin on me you whiny little sap. How many 9-11 conspiracy theorists do you know who died in 9-11? Oh wait, the answer is none. Allow me to make this perfectly clear – people who think that the twin towers were bought down by controlled demolition are morons, and the fact that they waste their lives making videos about missiles being fired etc rather than doing something productive to improve the world (socieoeconomic imbalance being the ACTUAL cause of 9-11) is, itself, more of an affront to the memory of those who died than anything I could say.
The reason we end up attacking the man is that we get so BORED attacking “The Man”‘s stupid arguments. The good arguments I don’t mind, and there are several though they are, as I keep pointing out to you and you keep ignoring, irrelevant as we should reduce CO2 emissions anyway just because they’re associated with lousy backward processes.
Some of your arguments are good – like “causality has not been conclusively proven” etc – but mostly they’re extensively rebutted in the public domain. The impact of water vapour and associated feedback mechanisms, for example, are widely accepted as being poorly understood. The responsible course of action in those circumstances is, however, to do more research and err on the side of caution. YOU, however, appear to be advocating that we abandon the whole thing and burn some motherfu*kin’ COAL baby.
That may not be the case however. What DO you think we should be doing G?
I never lose sleep. I always know exactly where my sleep is.
Okay, so what is the actual percentage of anthropogenic greenhouse gases outside the 95% created by water vapor? … Still no answer on the definitive percentage of AGW gases
Don’t get your undies in a bunch G. 5.53% is one figure I’ve seen. Are you going to argue that that’s too small to make any difference? If so, then you’ve read none of the excellent material linked to above.
In the period since 1750:
– human activity has increased greenhouse gasses
– significant warming has occurred
– no natural process has occurred to account for the warming (the only relevant natural process is a slight increase in solar output, the effect of human activity is estimated to be 15 times greater).
Can’t you do the math from there?
Other possible explanations (like sunspots) have been considered and discarded by the significant majority of the scientific community (sunspots make the wrong predictions about which parts of the atmosphere will warm).
T-Rex has likened the denier literature to the Sept 11 conspiracies, I think it’s more like the smoking cancer link that the tobacco companies managed to deny for so long with their shonky science and willing shills. That’s the league that you’re playing in G.
But if you don’t want to believe all those boring old scientists, how about serious business people? Read the report by the Association of British Insurers, planning for how the industry should deal with the expected increasing costs from climate change effects:
Business people still not worth listening to? How about the American Military:
So how about the Pentagon G – “warm mongers”? Got it wrong have they?
“I think it’s more like the smoking cancer link that the tobacco companies managed to deny for so long with their shonky science and willing shills. That’s the league that you’re playing in G.”
That’s a much better example in terms of the industry mentality, although I think the poor science and selective use of evidence employed by the amateur deniers almost exactly parallels that of other conspiracy theorists. And I’ve still got a grudge against 9-11 conspiracy theorists.
There are levels of denial too. It IS hard to tell exactly what the degree of impact will be – I don’t mind people who say “we don’t know for sure”. The people who piss me off are the ones who go “Man is not, can not, and will never have an impact on the global climate”. Those are the same people who say “There are too many trees in the amazon basin for the lumber/farmin industry to have an impact (in fact I believe the same argument was applied to Kauri’s in NZ), too many fish in the sea for fisheries to have an impact, too much water in the world for DDT to have an impact” etc etc. They have been almost universally wrong so far, and they are almost universally pushing some alternate agenda.
Watch what you argue and how you argue it G, it’s the difference between being an intelligent skeptic displaying caution in the face of public sentiment and being a corporate tool.
G, this is from memory and may be entirely wrong, but I understand CO2 was below 200ppm in the pre-industrial revolution era. It’s now 350ppm and forecast to hit 550ppm by 2050.
We’re looking at a doubling, or more, in the volume of airborne CO2.
Interesting that you commented (relating to volcanic events) that earth is very resilient. That, G, is spot-on. The last time something like this happened, the dinosaurs were thoroughly wiped out, yet the earth was fine; it recovered no worries.
Now how is it you find that of comfort? I bet a T-rex (picking a dinosaur at random…or am I?) is more resilient than us wimpy homo sapiens.
T-rex: “And I’ve still got a grudge against 9-11 conspiracy theorists.”
You sure do! heh. I studied holocaust denial at one stage, and have noted that the style used is oft repeated (disclaimer: please note all, that this has nothing to do with the holocaust specifically. I’m simply talking about the methods used to discredit any idea; using said method does NOT equate one with being a holocaust denier in terms of how evil you are).
It is very simple – you discount one part of an idea you don’t like, and suddenly the whole concept must be wrong. A fascinating example was the “there were no Nazi gas chambers” concept. Someone studied old gas chambers and found two points – there weren’t the correct type of rubber seals on the doors, and the walls did not contain a remnant of the zyklon-b gas used.
Therefore, the Nazis were misunderstood, and the Evil Jews are taking us all for a ride with Holocaust(TM).
Such methodology is used to a remarkable degree – it’s not hard to imagine a scenario in which those two issues identified could be explained away – one must ask where the weight of evidence lies, even if specifics aren’t as expected.
Something to consider. I found that with 9-11 stuff. One or two facts don’t fit right, so it was a Vast Conspiracy. I just can’t see it. Same with climate change. Sure – the models aren’t perfect, but where’s the real eight of evidence?
“5) Given today is 9/11, your allusion to me being a WTC conspiracy theorist is not only mean spirited, it’s actually quite distasteful.”
It was actually the 12th for us NZ-based fellas.
Hands up who still believes in the Hockey Stick?
You see, this one piece of genuine junk science says it all. Everyone was sucked in back then, all the way up to the heads of state, and now all those state-sponsored scientists are desperately holding on to their jobs by perpetuating the myth.
AGW is a T.H.E.O.R.Y… it hasn’t been proven ~ not here, not anywhere ~ and there’s a huge number of genuine scientists who are now rejecting it outright. If it was fact why don’t the IPCC just accept the call for an independent debate and get on with it? Answer: because denying is heresy, they have a vested interest in the warm-mongering, there’s a stack of contrary evidence that would throw doubt into the minds of too many people, and they need to have a consensus for the gravy train to keep on rolling.
I note that none of you has refuted Prof. Clarks charts that prove we’re in actually in cooling trend since way back.
The day climate models start hitting their marks, let me know. In the meantime relax… it’s all gonna be okay. 🙂
“The day climate models start hitting their marks, let me know.”
It will be a bit too late by then, I’m afraid, given that the same models generally say that if we act now, we’re only fairly screwed, not goneburger.
Quantum theory is just a THEORY. It doesn’t stop an entire industry being based on it – most CPU’s rely on quantum effects these days.
etc… Everything is a theory – NOTHING can be ‘proved’ unless you want to rely on faith.
Since that is where you seem to want to be, then we’ll just have to file you under “Idiot with faith and no real knowledge” along with many others.
Dummies guide to the latest “Hockey Stick” controversy
Scientific theory
“You see, this one piece of genuine junk science says it all.”
No, it doesn’t. Give me a single example of a field of scientific endeavour where the answer was perfect first time round? Quantum physics is a great example Lynn.
Who the f*ck cares that it’s been warmer in the past? Like Matt says, there have been mass extinction events in the past. By your reasoning, if a giant asteroid was going to hit the earth we should worry, because asteroids have hit the earth in the past. If you accept that there is likely to be a global temperature rise of a couple of degrees then you have to accept ALLLL the drama that comes with it, no matter how many such rises there have been previously.
Global warming would not cause the “end of the world”. It just might make things pretty freaking difficult for those who have adapted to the status quo.
For now, G, I’m concluding that you’re actually some 16yo web-warrior who reads too many Michael Crichton books, so I can’t be bothered arguing the point – given most of your arguments are irrelevant. But whatever, you stick at it, I guess at least you’re doing SOME quasi-research, it’s probably better for you than playing grand theft auto all day.
Adios.
“It will be a bit too late by then, I’m afraid, given that the same models generally say that if we act now, we’re only fairly screwed, not goneburger.”
Thing is, Matthew, if the models are inaccurate, they’re inaccurate. Why give them any credence? Pascal’s wager is no reason to introduce yet another tax.
“Quantum theory is just a THEORY.”
Ahhh, Iprent (or is it Lynn?), but unlike climate modeling, Quantum mechanics are reliable, otherwise they’d be entirely useless…
“Everything is a theory – NOTHING can be ‘proved’ unless you want to rely on faith.”
… and there it is: faith and AGW; the new religion for which skeptics are brandished as heretics.
“Who the f*ck cares that it’s been warmer in the past?”
You should care, T, because as soon as you get your head around the idea that it was warmer in the past – thousands of years before industrialisation – it’ll dawn on you that this is simply part of Earth’s natural cycle. Take another look at those charts. The long term trend is indicating a gradual cooling. If anything we should be pumping more greenhouse gas into the atmosphere.
Sleep tight. 🙂
“Thing is, Matthew, if the models are inaccurate, they’re inaccurate.”
Hey everybody, look! It’s a climate change denier with a black and white view of an issue! Come quick, bring your camera!
“Ahhh, Iprent (or is it Lynn?), but unlike climate modeling, Quantum mechanics are reliable, otherwise they’d be entirely useless “
Look, they don’t understand quantum mechanics either!! They’re only reliable on AVERAGE G, much like most… oh, what were we talking about a moment ago? Oh yeah, models.
“and there it is: faith and AGW; the new religion for which skeptics are brandished as heretics.” said the annoying Troll, deliberately misinterpreting what had just been suggested.
“You should care, T, because as soon as you get your head around the idea that it was warmer in the past – thousands of years before industrialisation – it’ll dawn on you that this is simply part of Earth’s natural cycle. Take another look at those charts. The long term trend is indicating a gradual cooling. If anything we should be pumping more greenhouse gas into the atmosphere.”
…Actually I think I’ll just leave that. Your reasoning is GOD. AWFUL. However it might interest you to know that one of the possible results of significant GHG emissions is another ice age. Though not in the “Day after tomorrow” sense. Not that that is remotely pointed to by any of your data.
Meteor strikes and supervolcanos are part of the earths natural cycle you gumby, it doesn’t mean we should aim to artifically recreate them.
Take another look at those charts. The long term trend is indicating a gradual cooling.
G you’re the biggest fool I’ve ever seen on this blog, and that is against some very stern competition. Congratulations.
You cling to these charts to claim that the climate is cooling when all other sources cited above say it is warming. You believe these charts compared to all other sources because you think they tell you what you want to believe. Well, you have a problem. The charts are based on data from the Hadley Center – the UK Met Office (see the bottom right of graph 1). So what do the Hadley Center have to say? Let’s start with an introduction on a climate science blog:
http://climateprogress.org/2008/05/09/hadley-center-to-deniers-we-are-still-warming/
http://climateprogress.org/2008/03/18/hadley-center-to-delayers-deniers-pielke-global-warming-not-cooling/
Let’s check out the Hadley Center themselves – they put together some resources just for people like you G:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/myths/index.html
Check out some of the underlying data:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/obsdata/
So there you go G, you say the Hadley Center data shows cooling, the Hadley Center (you know – professional meteorologists, the people who publish the data) say it shows warming.
Who should we believe G – you or the Hadley Center?
OH NOES GUYS!
G is fully right for realz on teh cooling trend.
I just checked, and according to SCIENCE the average temperature of the universe 300,000 years after its formation was 3000 degrees kelvin. It is WAY colder than that on earth now! Look out! Spread the truth!
Gotta go, I haven’t twittered on myspace for like 8minutes and my livejournal is way out of date plzkthanks.
It always makes me laugh how the fossil fuel lobby is always pushing the line that “those damn paleoclimatologists are just trying to keep themselves in a job” and keeping a straight face.
Damn paleoclimatologists. Always looking out for number one they are. Unlike the fossil fuel industry, which is famously altruistic and is just after what’s best for humanity as a whole…
T-Rex
Oath. It’s an astoundingly paranoid worldview. There is a conspiracy of tens and hundreds of thousands, lasting decades. The conspiracy consists of scientists who set out to learn about the world, but are deliberately lying about what they have discovered in order to hold on their enormous government pay checks. Even though there are many private sector companies that would actually pay them more money to tell the truth, these scientists continue to lie because, ummm, they want gov’t grants to continue studying things they know are false. Or something.
Retards.
Same can be said for those damn evolutionists.